Modelling the reopen strategy from dynamic zero-COVID in China considering the sequela and reinfection

Abstract

Although the dynamic zero-COVID policy has effectively controlled virus spread in China, China has to face challenges in balancing social-economic burdens, vaccine protection, and the management of long COVID symptoms. This study proposed a fine-grained agent-based model to simulate various strategies for transitioning from a dynamic zero-COVID policy with a case study in Shenzhen. The results indicate that a gradual transition, maintaining some restrictions, can mitigate infection outbreaks. However, the severity and duration of epidemics vary based on the strictness of the measures. In contrast, a more direct transition to reopening may lead to rapid herd immunity but necessitate preparedness for potential sequelae and reinfections. Policymakers should assess healthcare capacity for severe cases and potential long-COVID symptoms and determine the most suitable approach tailored to local conditions.

Study on the spatial decomposition of the infection probability of COVID-19

“…These limitations could be addressed in future research. Finally, the analytical framework shown in this study can also be useful in more simulations to justify the efforts in this work as well as those after relaxing the zero-policy facing Omicron 57 . All these can be done in future studies.…”