Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands

Abstract

BackgroundLandscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Netherlands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands.MethodsRandom forest models were used to link the occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010–2013. The environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validated.ResultsThe maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and North Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were important for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12.ConclusionsThe areas identified by the model as suitable and with high abundance of An. plumbeus, are consistent with the areas from which nuisance was reported. Our results can be helpful in the assessment of vector-borne disease risk.

Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany: updated geographic distribution and public health impact of a nuisance and vector mosquito

“…In that case, unattended agricultural water pools contaminated with organic waste, for example manure pits or underground septic tanks, are prone to colonisation by, and often mass development of, An. plumbeus [7,9,11]. Such water sources provide food and constant temperatures during the reproduction season of the mosquito and limited natural competition [10].…”

“…In this way, mass development of An. plumbeus is clearly supported by anthropogenic modifications of the environment such as urbanisation and changes of the landscape [11]. In 1969, Mohrig characterised An.…”

“…plumbeus as not being a nuisance species, although he conceded that mass development may exceptionally occur when man-made habitats are used as breeding sites [6]. The exception has now become quite common in some central European countries [7,11] and highlights the importance of the species as a public health problem.…”

“…3,[8][9][10]. Accumulating reports of mass development exist from Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany [10][11][12]. As An.…”

The Nuisance Mosquito Anopheles plumbeus (Stephens, 1828) in Germany—A Questionnaire Survey May Help Support Surveillance and Control

“…Among these, abandoned manure pits are particularly critical, as they seem to offer ideal living conditions for enormous numbers of larvae (6). Mass development in connection with manure pits has been reported from Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium (1, 7–9). …”