Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study

Abstract

In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2°C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9-10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes cost-effective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions.

Economic feasibility analysis of diesel replacement by vinasse biogas in a sugarcane fleet: a portfolio optimization approach

“…Therefore, the authors aimed to study the implications of the insertion of biogas into product portfolios and how it changes production decisions in the sugarcane industry. As models developed by [16] and [17], the risk measure adopted by [18] was also CVaR.…”

Sustainable utilization of biomass resources for decentralized energy generation and climate change mitigation: A regional case study in India

“…Bioenergy has significant global prospects for energy security and emission reduction. The current global utilization of bioenergy is reported to be around 50 EJ/yr and is expected to increase to 115-180 EJ by 2050 (Daioglou et al, 2019;Lyrio de Oliveira et al, 2020). In 2018, 6890 TWh renewable-based electricity was generated in the world with bioenergy having the third-largest share (637 TWh) (WBA, 2020).…”

Modelling Future Agricultural Mechanisation of Major Crops in China: An Assessment of Energy Demand, Land Use and Emissions

“…Mechanisation has mainly concerned land preparation [38,39], tractorisation [40] and harvesting practices (crop rotation management [41]), but also the integration of reforestation practices [42][43][44][45] and which have led to energy consumption reduction. Finally, for the case of China, for example, Yang et al [46] investigated the rapid mechanisation diffusion in China in in the previous decade; they show a five-fold increase in horsepower stock for medium and large tractors, and 25-fold for small tractors.…”