Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

Zhang, Nan; Cheng, Xiaoqing; Deng, Bin; Rui, Jia; Qiu, Luxia; Zhao, Zeyu; Lin, Shengnan; Liu, Xingchun; Xu, Jingwen; Wang, Yao; Yang, Meng; Zhu, Yuanzhao; Huang, Jiefeng; Liu, Chan; Liu, Weikang; Luo, Li; Li, Zhuoyang; Li, Peihua; Yang, Tianlong; Li, Zhifeng; Liang, Shuyi; Wang, Xiaochen; Hu, Jianli; Chen, Tianmu

doi:10.1186/s13071-021-04732-3

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 50 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The multi-host models involve two or more host populations of different species, like models for dengue fever ( Yi et al., 2019 ), brucellosis ( Sun et al., 2020 ), and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome ( Zhang et al., 2021 ), in which the transmission happened inside and between those different species. The vector-borne disease is a special case of multi-host models, that infections will never occur inside each one of host species, and can be formularized by setting the transmission coefficients inside each group be zero in the multi-host models.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computing R0 of dynamic models by a definition-based method

Guo

Zhao

et al. 2022

Infectious Disease Modelling

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computing R0 of dynamic models by a definition-based method

Guo

Zhao

et al. 2022

Infectious Disease Modelling

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…This study was designed as the Fig 1 . This study used the established SFTS multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) [ 17 ] to calculate the infection rate coefficients of SFTS in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2020, including the coefficient of human-to-human transmission ( β 1 ), the coefficient of tick-to-human transmission ( β 21 ), and the coefficient of environmental-to-human transmission rate ( β w 1 ) and the infection rate coefficient of the host animal to humans ( β 31 ). The individual transmission rate coefficients are used to indicate the different transmission routes of SFTS and to reflect the infection dynamics of SFTS by describing the trend change.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applying the MMDM already established by previous studies [ 17 ], the incidence data of Jiangsu Province in 2017–2020 and Zhejiang Province in 2016 were fitted to calculate the transmission rate coefficients of SFTS in different transmission routes in the two provinces by Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given that for dengue fever, which is also an insect-borne disease, it mainly includes household survey, health promotion, environmental cleaning, residual spraying and space spraying using insecticides [ 14 ]. Meanwhile, the effects of interventions regarding case isolation and treatment with potent drugs have been simulated in previous articles [ 17 ]. In this paper, we change the infection rate coefficient by adding the contact efficiency ( θ ) in MMDM as a way to simulate the effect of controlling the prevention and control of different transmission routes.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some researchers have established a seasonal transmission dynamics model of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), and explored meteorological factors and morbidity and transmissibility the relationship between the two has initially revealed the "black box" problem of the spread of HFMD [ 16 ]. In the previous research, we also established the first SFTS multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) [ 17 ], by fitting the real SFTS report data of Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2019 through the model, and calculating the infection rate coefficients of the four transmission routes (human-to-human transmission, tick-to-human transmission, environment-to-human transmission and host animal-to-human transmission over time, which are human-to-human respectively infection rate coefficient ( β 1 ), tick-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β 21 ), environment-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β w1 ) and host animal-to-human infection rate coefficient ( β 31 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Meteorological factors and tick density affect the dynamics of SFTS in jiangsu province, China

Chen

2022

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background This study aimed to explore whether the transmission routes of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) will be affected by tick density and meteorological factors, and to explore the factors that affect the transmission of SFTS. We used the transmission dynamics model to calculate the transmission rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS, and used the generalized additive model to uncover how meteorological factors and tick density affect the spread of SFTS. Methods In this study, the time-varying infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2020 were calculated based on the previous multi-population multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) of SFTS. The changes in transmission routes were summarized by collecting questionnaires from 537 SFTS cases in 2018–2020 in Jiangsu Province. The incidence rate of SFTS and the infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes were dependent variables, and month, meteorological factors and tick density were independent variables to establish a generalized additive model (GAM). The optimal GAM was selected using the generalized cross-validation score (GCV), and the model was validated by the 2016 data of Zhejiang Province and 2020 data of Jiangsu Province. The validated GAMs were used to predict the incidence and infection rate coefficients of SFTS in Jiangsu province in 2021, and also to predict the effect of extreme weather on SFTS. Results The number and proportion of infections by different transmission routes for each year and found that tick-to-human and human-to-human infections decreased yearly, but infections through animal and environmental transmission were gradually increasing. MMDM fitted well with the three-year SFTS incidence data (P<0.05). The best intervention to reduce the incidence of SFTS is to reduce the effective exposure of the population to the surroundings. Based on correlation tests, tick density was positively correlated with air temperature, wind speed, and sunshine duration. The best GAM was a model with tick transmissibility to humans as the dependent variable, without considering lagged effects (GCV = 5.9247E-22, R2 = 96%). Reported incidence increased when sunshine duration was higher than 11 h per day and decreased when temperatures were too high (>28°C). Sunshine duration and temperature had the greatest effect on transmission from host animals to humans. The effect of extreme weather conditions on SFTS was short-term, but there was no effect on SFTS after high temperature and sunshine hours. Conclusions Different factors affect the infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes. Sunshine duration, relative humidity, temperature and tick density are important factors affecting the occurrence of SFTS. Hurricanes reduce the incidence of SFTS in the short term, but have little effect in the long term. The most effective intervention to reduce the incidence of SFTS is to reduce population exposure to high-risk environments.

show abstract

Cryo-EM structure of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus

Du,

Peng,

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV) is a tick-borne human-infecting bunyavirus, which utilizes two envelope glycoproteins, Gn and Gc, to enter host cells. However, the structure and organization of these glycoproteins on virion surface are not yet known. Here we describe the structure of SFTSV determined by single particle reconstruction, which allows mechanistic insights into bunyavirus assembly at near-atomic resolution. The SFTSV Gn and Gc proteins exist as heterodimers and further assemble into pentameric and hexameric peplomers, shielding the Gc fusion loops by both intra- and inter-heterodimer interactions. Individual peplomers are associated mainly through the ectodomains, in which the highly conserved glycans on N914 of Gc play a crucial role. This elaborate assembly stabilizes Gc in the metastable prefusion conformation and creates some cryptic epitopes that are only accessible in the intermediate states during virus entry. These findings provide an important basis for developing vaccines and therapeutic drugs.

show abstract

Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

Cited by 6 publications

References 50 publications

Computing R0 of dynamic models by a definition-based method

Computing R0 of dynamic models by a definition-based method

Meteorological factors and tick density affect the dynamics of SFTS in jiangsu province, China

Cryo-EM structure of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About