Modelling tides and sea-level rise: To flood or not to flood

Pelling, Holly E.; Green, J.A. Mattias; Ward, Sophie

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.004

Cited by 90 publications

(153 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The results in the form of M 2 co-phase and co-amplitude plots are shown in Figure 5 (c). Reducing the bottom friction to more physically plausible values causes the amphidromic point to move north and west, as also found by Pelling (2013). It makes the amplitude pattern more symmetric and increases amplitudes in the south of the domain, bringing model amplitude results closer to observations, particularly along the east coast of the domain.…”

Section: Bathymetry and Bottom Frictionsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…This leads to a reduction in the beach in front of the structure and hence the energy dissipation at the coast is reduced. Coastal engineering impact studies tend to focus on a single piece of engineering and only investigate the impact on the local area, however there is already evidence that cumulatively coastal engineering work can alter tidal patterns at the shelf sea scale; Pelling (2013) shows how the model definition of the European coastline (if new areas are allowed to flood or if the shoreline is fixed) can affect the M 2 response to sea level rise and Jung (2014) shows how the tidal regime in the Yellow Sea has been changed due to the construction of sea-dikes and seawalls with changes in the M 2 phase of up to 0.4 hours.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Importance of Long Wave Reflections in Tidal Modelling on a Continental Shelf

Luxford

Stansby

Rogers

2014

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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This paper investigates the tidal phase error found in a 2-D hydrodynamic model of the Southern Bight of the European continental shelf; an error also found in other models of the region. After identifying the predominant mechanisms controlling the tidal flow in the Southern Bight: bathymetry, bottom friction and coastline reflections, analysis of each mechanism is made. Sensitivity to bathymetry is tested, to bed friction using values based on physical bed properties and to coastline reflection of tidal waves by comparing standing/propagating wave analysis from model results with observations. It was found that using more physically realistic friction values improved the prediction of tidal amplitudes but had minimal effect on tidal phase and an unrealistic reduction in the bathymetry level would be required to correct the phase error. However analysis of tidal reflections revealed that the model under-predicts the amplitude of the reflected wave which may cause the erroneous phase pattern. It is proposed that the reflectiveness of the coastline has increased over time due to the cumulative effect of coastal engineering such as sea walls and barrages reducing energy dissipation. It is concluded that more attention needs to be given to the representation of coastlines in models; something which is currently neglected in model calibrations which focus on changing the bathymetry, bottom friction and boundary conditions to achieve the best model fit. It is suggested that the modelling of this process needs to be improved, especially when calculating long-term sediment transport from the hydrodynamic predictions where residual velocities are important and of small magnitude relative to velocity amplitudes.

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Section: Bathymetry and Bottom Frictionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Importance of Long Wave Reflections in Tidal Modelling on a Continental Shelf

Luxford

Stansby

Rogers

2014

Int. Conf. Coastal. Eng.

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“…They showed that a 2-m SLR would result in a * 5 cm increase in M 2 tidal amplitude in the central North Sea and Southern Bight, and a similar decrease in between. An update by Pelling et al (2013) highlighted a key remaining uncertainty in understanding this response-whether the water is assumed to be contained by a sea wall or allowed to flood the land. Recent work, based on seasonal variations in major tidal constituents (Gräwe et al 2014;Müller et al 2014) also suggests the need to consider changes in stratification on the continental shelf in shallow seas, which can alter the eddy viscosity and profile of currents with depth.…”

Section: Future Changes In Extreme Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Increasing numbers of regional climate change scenario assessments have become available for the North Sea. A critical review of the regional studies has helped identify robust changes, challenges, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. Coherent findings from the climate change impact studies reviewed in this chapter include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, a freshening of the North Sea, an increase in ocean acidification and a decrease in primary production. However, findings from multi-model ensembles show the amplitude and spatial pattern of the projected changes in sea level, temperature, salinity and primary production are not consistent among the various regional projections and remain uncertain. Different approaches are used to downscale global climate change impacts, each with advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of the downscaling method employed, the regional studies are ultimately affected by the forcing global climate models. Projecting regional climate change impacts on biogeochemistry and primary production is currently limited by a lack of consistent downscaling approaches for marine and terrestrial impacts. Substantial natural variability in the North Sea region from annual to multi-decadal time scales is a particular challenge for projecting regional climate change impacts. Natural variability dominates long-term trends in wind fields and strongly wind-influenced characteristics like local sea level, storm C. Schrum

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“…99b with 5′ resolution ( Matsumoto et al, 2000) . In the Bohai Sea, with shallow water tidal models are sensitive to bottom friction coefficient, and according to former simulations ( Lu and Zhang, 2006;Pelling et al, 2013a;Song et al, 2013;Yao et al, 2012) , the drag coefficient in the model was tuned to 1． 2×10 -3 m / s to minimize the simulation errors. The simulations were set up to enable inter-comparison and therefore all parameters were kept constant with the exception of sea level rise.…”

Section: Numerical Model and Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Accelerated sea level rise ( SLR ) can drastically affect coastal regions, such as submerging and increased flooding of lower-land. Except for these direct effect of increased high water level, on longer term scale SLR could influence tidal system ( Pelling et al, 2013a;2013b;Pickering et al, 2012; . The basic physical consequence to such changes is the variation in tidal dynamics ( Chu-Agor et al, 2011;Muller et al, 2011;Pickering et al, 2012;Poulos et al, 2009;Snoussi et al, 2009;Ward et al, 2012 ) .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%