Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario "models", this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transportenergy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to lifecycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals.

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“…Centre where UKTCM played a key role in developing the 'Lifestyle' scenarios (Anable et al, forthcoming;UK Energy Research Centre, 2009). …”

Section: Interventions An Example Is the Recent Energy2050 Work Of Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

2012

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“…There are a variety of approaches already available for the forecast of the annual energy demand of the transportation sector such as the ones described in [9], [10] and [11] but, as it has been already stated earlier, an hourly distribution is needed here. To accommodate for this, agent based modelling (ABM) has been utilized in the case of this work.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent based modelling and energy planning – Utilization of MATSim for transport energy demand modelling

Novosel

Perković

Ban

et al. 2015

Energy

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The transportation sector is one of the major energy consumers in most energy systems and a large portion of the energy demand is linked to road transport and personal vehicles. It accounted for 32.8% of the final energy consumption of Croatia in 2011 making it the second most energy demanding sector. Because of their higher efficiency, a modal switch from conventional internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs) has the potential to greatly reduce the overall energy demand of the transport sector. Our previous work has shown that a transition to EVs in a combination with a modal split from air and road to rail transport can reduce the energy consumption in Croatia by 99 PJ, which is approximately 59%, by the year 2050 when compared to the business as usual scenario. The goal of this paper is to model the hourly distribution of the energy consumption of EVs and use the calculated load curves to test their impact on the Croatian energy system. The hourly demand for the transport sector has been calculated using the agent-based modelling tool MATSim on a simplified geographic layout. The impact EVs have on the energy system has been modelled using EnergyPLAN.

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“…Such a defect is particularly serious if there is an interest in futures that are 'very different' to the present (Anable et al, 2012;Ran et al, 2012). Secondly, traditional forecasting-based modelling does not representor only represents in a highly simplified waythe future actions of organisations such as government authorities (Timms, 2008) or transport suppliers (Mula et al, 2010) in response to future conditions, both within the transport sector and outside.…”

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confidence: 99%

Imagineering Mobility: Constructing Utopias for Future Urban Transport

2014

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Over the past 50 years a growing body of work has sought to address the problem of planning for transportation in the long term future through scenario-building. Such thinking has generally been restricted to issues concerned with environmental sustainability and the 'images' of future transport so created are usually weak in terms of their social sustainability content, either treating social issues superficially, or ignoring them entirely, or even creating images that are socially undesirable. At the same time, there has generally been a marked decrease over the past 20 years in socially-oriented utopian thinking. As a direct result of these two factors, hardly any consideration has been given recently to imagining socially sustainable views of transport in a future utopia. The key underlying aim of this paper is to provide some background thinking about how this lack might be addressed. To do so, it examines concepts about utopia in terms of their form, content and function, and considers possible reasons for the recent decline in utopian thinking and their 'replacement' by a type of futures-thinking that is referred to as dystopian avoidance. It then examines transport characteristics of utopian thinking in urban planning in the 20 th Century and considers various 'antinomies of transport' with respect to future utopias. Based upon the insights gained, the paper comments on two existing 'practical' sets of transport-related scenarios in terms of their utopian and dystopian characteristics. One particular result is that the utopian aspects of these scenario sets in terms of their social content are relatively weak, in line with the hypothesised recent general decline in (social) utopian thinking. Various conclusions are made which emphasise the usefulness of utopian thinking in transport planning, particularly in participatory approaches. It is suggested that three elements of the transport system should be separately 'utopianised': the mobility of people and goods; physical aspects that facilitate or inhibit such mobility; and the system of governance with respect to formulating and implementing transport policy.

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Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

Cited by 181 publications

References 8 publications

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Agent based modelling and energy planning – Utilization of MATSim for transport energy demand modelling

Imagineering Mobility: Constructing Utopias for Future Urban Transport

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