Abstract. The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) has been employed to explore the sensitivity of the forecast skill of mixed-layer properties to initial conditions, boundary conditions, and vertical mixing parameterisations. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) or by the MER-CATOR global ocean circulation model via one-way nesting; the initial conditions were additionally updated through the assimilation of observations. Nowcasts and forecasts from the weather forecast models COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT, partly melded with observations, served as surface boundary conditions. The vertical mixing was parameterised by the GLS (generic length scale) scheme (Umlauf and Burchard, 2003) in four different set-ups. All ROMS forecasts were validated against the observations which were taken during the REP14-MED survey to the west of Sardinia. Nesting ROMS in MERCATOR and updating the initial conditions through data assimilation provided the best agreement of the predicted mixed-layer properties with the time series from a moored thermistor chain. Further improvement was obtained by the usage of COSMO-ME atmospheric forcing, which was melded with real observations, and by the application of the k-ω vertical mixing scheme with increased vertical eddy diffusivity. The predicted temporal variability of the mixed-layer temperature was reasonably well correlated with the observed variability, while the modelled variability of the mixed-layer depth exhibited only agreement with the observations near the diurnal frequency peak. For the forecasted horizontal variability, reasonable agreement was found with observations from a ScanFish section, but only for the mesoscale wave number band; the observed submesoscale variability was not reproduced by ROMS.