Modelling vaccination capacity at mass vaccination hubs and general practice clinics: a simulation study

Abstract

Background COVID-19 mass vaccination programs place an additional burden on healthcare services. We aim to model the queueing process at vaccination sites to inform service delivery. Methods We use stochastic queue network models to simulate queue dynamics in larger mass vaccination hubs and smaller general practice (GP) clinics. We estimate waiting times and daily capacity based on a range of assumptions about appointment schedules, service times and staffing and stress-test these models to assess the impact of increased demand and staff shortages. We also provide an interactive applet, allowing users to explore vaccine administration under their own assumptions. Results Based on our assumed service times, the daily throughput for an eight-hour clinic at a mass vaccination hub ranged from 500 doses for a small hub to 1400 doses for a large hub. For GP clinics, the estimated daily throughput ranged from about 100 doses for a small practice to almost 300 doses for a large practice. What-if scenario analysis showed that sites with higher staff numbers were more robust to system pressures and mass vaccination sites were more robust than GP clinics. Conclusions With the requirement for ongoing COVID-19 booster shots, mass vaccination is likely to be a continuing feature of healthcare delivery. Different vaccine sites are useful for reaching different populations and maximising coverage. Stochastic queue networks offer a flexible and computationally efficient approach to simulate vaccination queues and estimate waiting times and daily throughput to inform service delivery.

Optimasi Waktu Penyelesaian Kuota Vaksin pada Layanan Vaksinasi di Pusat Perbelanjaan dengan Simulasi Kejadian Diskrit

“…Studi simulasi tersebut dilakukan pada dua pusat vaksinasi A dan B. Melalui penggabungan proses penilaian klinis dan vaksinasi di pusat vaksinasi B, throughput meningkat hingga 96%. Hanly et al (2022) mengusulkan dua konfigurasi untuk pusat vaksinasi massal dan klinik vaksinasi di Australia. Pusat vaksinasi massal yang menjadi subjek kajian memiliki kapasitas 14 kali klinik vaksinasi.…”

“…Menurut Bhat (2015), secara dasar antrean dapat dicirikan oleh tiga komponen: tingkat kedatangan ke dalam antrean, waktu layanan, dan jumlah server. Teori antrean menawarkan cara untuk meningkatkan kepuasan pelanggan dan menentukan jumlah server dengan memodelkan proses antrean dan menyeimbangkan faktor-faktor dalam antrean (Hanly et al, 2022).…”

Planning a Reliable Hospital-Wide Cleaning Workforce

“…Jun et al [21] develop a selection tool to assist in modeling method selection for 1) qualitative methods used in problem structuring and problem structure, and 2) quantitative mathematical and simulation approaches. Selected examples of simulation applied to improve health services can be found in a variety of domains including but not limited to: surgery scheduling [8,22], vaccination delivery [23], obstetrics, gynaecology and family planning [24][25][26], stroke [27][28][29], oncology [30,31], operating room management [32,33], ophthalmology [34,35], osteoporosis [36], nurse staffing levels [37], planning endoscopy services [38] and community services for Parkinson Disease [39]. More recently the use of hybrid simulation models [5], the combination of modeling approaches to leverage strengths and mitigate weaknesses of an individual approach, has been growing.…”

Enhancing Mass Vaccination Programs with Queueing Theory and Spatial Optimization

“…Queueing theory is foundational to operations research and has been applied to many facets of healthcare operations, including the triage process in emergency care departments, 9 staffing needs in operating rooms, 10 hospital bed management, 11,12 and outpatient scheduling. 13 Additionally, it has been applied to COVID-19 vaccine distribution and capacity planning, 7,[14][15][16][17][18] as well as the containment of disease outbreaks, bioterrorist attacks, and other public health emergencies. [19][20][21][22] Mass dog vaccination campaigns (MDVCs) are held annually in Arequipa, Peru to address the re-emergence of canine rabies in the region; 23 they have important parallels with early pandemic vaccination and testing programs in that success depends, in part, on strategically placing and optimally allocating resources across a discrete number of fixed-location facility sites.…”