MODELS: a six-step framework for developing an infectious disease model

Abstract

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, a plethora of modeling studies related to COVID-19 have been released. While some models stand out due to their innovative approaches, others are flawed in their methodology. To assist novices, frontline healthcare workers, and public health policymakers in navigating the complex landscape of these models, we introduced a structured framework named MODELS. This framework is designed to detail the essential steps and considerations for creating a dependable epidemic model, offering direction to researchers engaged in epidemic modeling endeavors. Graphical Abstract

Theoretical Epidemiology Needs Urgent Attention in China

“…The models can be classified based on the object of study and parameter properties into two categories: 1) models with a group object and deterministic parameters, exemplified by the transmission dynamics model (1,4,6,(40)(41)(42)(43)(44)(45); 2) models with an individual object and stochastic parameters, illustrated by agentbased models (46)(47), multiagent system (MAS) (48), cellular automata (CA) (49)(50), and others.…”

“…Hence, the process of model building and assessment calculations should adhere to a standardized and reproducible methodology. As such, our research team has introduced the “MODELS” modeling framework, comprising six primary steps and 19 sub-steps in the modeling process ( 51 ).…”