Models for Predicting Non-Renewable Energy Competing with Renewable Source for Sustainable Energy Development: Case of Asia and Oceania Region

Abstract

Accurate energy forecasting is of great significance to meet the energy demands, clean energy plans and sustainable energy development strategies. Therefore, this study develops the integrated grey framework to forecast the growth trends of renewable and non-renewable energy production and consumption in Asia and Oceania region from 2017 to 2025 by using novel grey forecasting models, namely even grey model, discrete grey model, optimized discrete grey model and non-homogeneous discrete grey model (NDGM). Mean absolute percentage error was employed to measure the performance of grey models. Data were collected from the International Energy Agency from 1980 to 2016. The results reveal that the energy consumption and production from coal as a non-renewable energy source are comparatively higher than any other energy source and depicted an increasing trend until 2025. Renewable, nuclear and other renewable sources of energy production and consumption showed the uprising trend with slow pace. Moreover, the consumptions of petroleum started with 23.07 quadrillion BTU in 1980; however, the production ended at 18.577 quads BTU in 2015. The production and consumption of petroleum will reach approximately 21.0465 and 93.750 quads BTU, respectively, in 2025 and are projected to increase in Asia and Ocean region. All the four grey models showed the excellent performance. NDGM performance was recorded slightly higher. The study is first of its kind to develop the grey integrated forecasting framework to predict the renewable and non-renewable production and consumption in the region of Asia and Oceania. This study provides useful information for policymakers, decision-makers and energy experts in sustainable energy planning, and simultaneously helps to make the environment more sustainable.

Addressing the Challenges to Sustainable Initiatives in Value Chain Flexibility: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

“…This study confirmed how flexibility moves toward the SDGs. Previous studies highlight the positive relationship between sustainability and resilience within decisionmaking processes in risk measurement (Settembre-Blundo et al, 2021); of the potential benefits associated with the implementation of a flexible consumption tax (Gerbeti, 2021); of the decisive contribution of renewable energy globally (Ikram, 2021); and in the resilience of the education sector following pandermia (Ahmed et al, 2021).…”

Carbon dioxide emissions mitigation strategy through enhanced geothermal systems: western Anatolia, Turkey

“…Geothermal energy can support base-load electricity supply and external factors such as weather and climate do not influence the energy source and the energy source is available throughout the year (MIT 2006 ; DiPippo 2012 ). Thus, costwise and efficiencywise geothermal, in general, is economically the most cost-effective energy source (Ikrim 2021 ) especially in Turkey (Table 3 ).…”

“…This cost does not exist in the case of electricity generated from the geothermal energy source. Thus, electricity generated from geothermal energy sources is much cheaper compared to the electricity generated from fossil fuels energy sources (Ikram 2021 , Baba and Chandrasekaram, 2022 ). In addition to the future cost reduction due to advancement in drilling technology, the advantage that Turkey (western Anatolian region) has is the presence of Curie depth point at shallower depth (~ 12 km) and high heat flow values over the entire region (Akin et al 2014 ).…”

Social Sustainability Challenges Towards Flexible Supply Chain Management: Post-COVID-19 Perspective

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