Models for predicting risk of dementia: a systematic review

Hou, Xiao-He; Feng, Lei; Zhang, Can; Cao, Xi‐Peng; Tan, Lan; Yu, Jin‐Tai

doi:10.1136/jnnp-2018-318212

Cited by 134 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In future trials, up-to-date scientific evidence on risk factors and prevention should not only be incorporated into the content of the interventions, but also communicated in a pragmatic way, which would allow participants to understand how one can affect his/her own dementia risk. Available dementia risk scores and tools [27,28] could be useful in this regard. Importantly, considering that lack of knowledge could be perceived as a barrier towards behavioural and lifestyle change for dementia prevention [13] and knowledgeable individuals may be more likely to pursue an active and healthy lifestyle [29], promoting awareness among older adults should also be considered a priority for public health policies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experiences of dementia and attitude towards prevention: a qualitative study among older adults participating in a prevention trial

et al. 2020

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Background: A better insight into older adults' understanding of and attitude towards cognitive disorders and their prevention, as well as expectations and reasons for participation in prevention trials, would help design, conduct, and implement effective preventive interventions. This qualitative study aimed at exploring the knowledge and perceptions of cognitive disorders and their prevention among participants in a prevention trial. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted among the participants of a multinational randomised controlled trial testing the efficacy of a lifestyle-based eHealth intervention in preventing cardiovascular disease or cognitive decline in community dwellers aged 65+. Participants were probed on their reasons for participation in the trial and their views on general health, cardiovascular disease, ageing, and prevention. The subset of data focusing on cognitive disorders (15 interviewees; all in Finland) was considered for this study. Data were analysed using content analysis. Results: Participants' knowledge of the cause and risk factors of cognitive disorders and prevention was limited and superficial, and a need for up-to-date, reliable, and practical information and advice was expressed. Cognitive disorders evoked fear and concern, and feelings of hopelessness and misery were frequently expressed, indicating a stigma. Strong heredity of cognitive disorders was a commonly held belief, and opinions on the possibility of prevention were doubtful, particularly in relation to primary prevention. Family history and/or indirect experiences of cognitive disorders was a recurrent theme and it showed to be linked to both the knowledge of and feelings associated with cognitive disorders, as well as attitude towards prevention. Indirect experiences were linked to increased awareness and knowledge, but also uncertainty about risk factors and possibility of prevention. Distinct fear and concerns, particularly over one's own cognition/risk, and high motivation towards engaging in prevention and participating in a prevention trial were also identified in connection to this theme.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experiences of dementia and attitude towards prevention: a qualitative study among older adults participating in a prevention trial

et al. 2020

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“…In addition, CAIDE highlights the role of vascular factors which have found to have inverse associations with dementia among older age groups [20][21][22]. Therefore, CAIDE is a good index for mid-life dementia risk prediction [23] but application of it among older adults is limited. However, in the Finnish populationbased CAIDE study, a late-life dementia index has recently been developed by using a supervised machine learning method which is able to handle large amounts of data, structure risk factors into groups and give a comprehensive overview of an individual's predictive profile pointing the most relevant risk factors.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Secular changes in dementia risk indices among 70-year-olds: a comparison of two Finnish cohorts born 20 years apart

et al. 2019

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Aims To compare dementia risk indices among two separate cohorts of 70-year-olds born 20 year apart. Methods Community-dwelling 70-year-old Finns were examined with similar examinations in 1991 (n = 1032) and in 2011 (n = 960). Dementia risk was assessed with the CAIDE Dementia Risk Score (CAIDE) (n = 1516), the Brief Dementia Risk Index (BDRI) (n = 1598) and the Dementia Screening Indicator (DSI) (n = 1462). Results The proportion of subjects with moderate or high risk for dementia was significantly higher in earlier than in later born cohort according to CAIDE (99% and 94%, respectively, p < 0.001) and BDRI (41% and 15%, p < 0.001), but not according to DSI (5% and 6%, p = 0.184). The total scores of the earlier born cohort were significantly higher than those of the later born cohort according to all three indices. Conclusions According to dementia risk indices, it seems that dementia risk has decreased among community-dwelling 70-year-old subjects during the last decades in Finland.Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

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“…Our Results showed that modifiable indicators (baseline cognitive function and ADLs), and nonmodifiable factors (age, education and marriage) were strong predictors forecasting CI. Recent metaanalysis [9] of 61 cohort studies regarding the predictive model for risk of dementia summarized common predictive factors used in included studies including demographic factors (age, education and sex), cognitive function, health and lifestyles and genetics. In consistent with this study, we found modifiable factor of cognitive function was valuable to predict dementia but our study was not able to include genetics information.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognostic factors for the 6-year cognitive impairment in China: results from the CLHLS cohort

Shu

et al. 2019

Preprint

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There is merely study from China using nationally representative longitudinal dataset to assess the prognostic factors for the progression of normal cognition to cognitive impairment (CI).Aim This study will identify the best subset of 6-year CI predictors.Design and setting 11,781 participants 60 years old or older from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS, 2008-09 wave) were included at baseline for six-year follow-up. Of these individuals, 4,727 participants were eligible for final analysis. Univariate and binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify the significantly related predictors for incident CI. Subsequently, nomogram models were established to rank and find prognostic factors.Results A overall prevalence of 6-year CI was 17.4%, and 60-70, 70-80, 81-90, 91- age groups were 5.4%, 9.5%, 26.1% and 50.3%, respectively. In general, the activities of daily living and baseline cognition were valuable prognostic factors to predict CI, with the exception of unmodifiable factors. Age subgroup analysis showed that, among 60-70 old age group, cardiovascular diseases were valuable prognostic factors; among over 70-year old age groups, baseline cognitive function could be a valuable addition to CI prediction models.Conclusions Brief baseline cognitive testing and functional status were important valuable prognostic factors for CI.

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Models for predicting risk of dementia: a systematic review

Abstract: The predictive ability of existing dementia risk models is acceptable. Population-specific dementia risk models are necessary for populations and subpopulations with different characteristics.

Cited by 134 publications

References 40 publications

Experiences of dementia and attitude towards prevention: a qualitative study among older adults participating in a prevention trial

Experiences of dementia and attitude towards prevention: a qualitative study among older adults participating in a prevention trial

Secular changes in dementia risk indices among 70-year-olds: a comparison of two Finnish cohorts born 20 years apart

Prognostic factors for the 6-year cognitive impairment in China: results from the CLHLS cohort

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