Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age–period–cohort models

Clayton, David; Schifflers, E

doi:10.1002/sim.4780060406

Cited by 773 publications

(634 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

612

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The good fit of a 2-term age-cohort model to our data enables us to interpret and compare the effects, but it is important that one first checks for linear drift, which can manifest as any age, period, or cohort effect. 25 In 3 of our 4 analyses, an age-drift model did not fit the data, and in the fourth (Sweden, age Ͻ 45) there was only marginal evidence (p ϭ 0.08) of fit. Furthermore, in all analyses, age-cohort models provided adequate fit and were significantly better than simple linear (drift) models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Profound changes in breast cancer incidence may reflect changes into a Westernized lifestyle: A comparative population‐based study in Singapore and Sweden

Chia

Reilly

Tan

et al. 2004

Intl Journal of Cancer

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Breast cancer incidence in Sweden has always been approximately twice as high as in Singapore. In recent years, this difference is limited to postmenopausal women. The aim of this study was to explore the reasons behind these differences through the use of age-period-cohort modeling. This population-based study included all breast cancer cases reported to the Swedish and the Singapore cancer registries from 1968 to 1997, with a total of 135,581 Swedish and 10,716 Singaporean women. Poisson regression using ageperiod and age-cohort models was used to determine the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period and birth cohort. Incidence rate ratios were used to summarize these effects. An age-cohort model provided the best fit to the data in both countries, indicating that changes over lifetime, rather than recent differences in medical surveillance, might account for the observed differences in these 2 populations. The changes over birth cohort were much greater among Singaporean women. The relative effect of age was very similar in the 2 countries. Analyses show that age and cohort effects may explain the differences in trends of female breast cancer incidence between Sweden and Singapore. The larger cohort effect seen in Singaporean women may be attributed to more rapid changes in reproduction and lifestyle patterns than that of Swedish women during the period studied. The incidence of breast cancer in postmenopausal women in Singapore will probably continue to rise in the coming decades to match the current Swedish rates.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Profound changes in breast cancer incidence may reflect changes into a Westernized lifestyle: A comparative population‐based study in Singapore and Sweden

Chia

Reilly

Tan

et al. 2004

Intl Journal of Cancer

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Predictions of future cancer patterns use a variety of modelling strategies (Teppo et al, 1974;Osmond, 1985;Clayton and Schifflers, 1987;Hakulinen and Dyba, 1994;Hakulinen, 1996;Dyba and Hakulinen, 2000), their reliability depending directly on the choice of model and the explanatory variables fitted. In the absence of information on the trends in exposure to relevant risk factors, the most practical and plausible method is to use simple time-linear models on the arithmetic or logarithmic scale (Dyba and Hakulinen, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991–2005

et al. 2004

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There are no national-level data on cancer mortality in China since two surveys in 1973 -1975 and 1990 -1992 (a 10% sample), but ongoing surveillance systems, based on nonrandom selected populations, give an indication as to the trends for major cancers. Based on a log-linear regression model with Poisson errors, the annual rates of change for 10 cancers and all other cancers combined, by age, sex and urban/rural residence were estimated from the data of the surveillance system of the Center for Health Information and Statistics, covering about 10% of the national population. These rates of change were applied to the survey data of 1990 -1992 to estimate national mortality in the year 2000, and to make projections for 2005. Mortality rates for all cancers combined, adjusted for age, are predicted to change little between 1991 and 2005 (À0.8% in men and þ 2.5% in women), but population growth and ageing will result in an increasing number of deaths, from 1.2 to 1.8 million. The largest predicted increases are for the numbers of female breast ( þ 155.4%) and lung cancers ( þ 112.1% in men, þ 153.5% in women). For these two sites, mortality rates will almost double. Cancer will make an increasing contribution to the burden of diseases in China in the 21st century. The marked increases in risk of cancers of the lung, female breast and large bowel indicate priorities for prevention and control. The increasing trends in young age groups for cancers of the cervix, lung and female breast suggest that their predicted increases may be underestimated, and that more attention should be paid to strategies for their prevention and control.

show abstract

“…A formal statistical examination of whether trends were better described by secular changes in risk (period effects) or changes in risk from generation to generation (birth cohort effects) was then made by fitting the standard age period-cohort model. 23 The models fitted included terms for age, drift (the rate of change of regular trend, which cannot be attributed exclusively to either period and cohort) and the nonlinear effects of period and of cohort. Hierarchic fitting strategies were employed to determine the best model.…”

Section: Time Trends In Incidence and Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hierarchic fitting strategies were employed to determine the best model. 23 To examine the effects of period and cohort as measures of relative risk, the groups with midpoints 1882 and 1914 were used as baselines, respectively.…”

Section: Time Trends In Incidence and Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Incidence and mortality from stomach cancer in Japan, Slovenia and the USA

Lambert

Guilloux

Oshima

et al. 2001

Intl Journal of Cancer

105

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The mortality and incidence from stomach cancer were compared in Japan (a country with a high incidence where there was full application of mass screening during this period) and 2 countries with no screening policy: the USA (with a very low incidence) and Slovenia (with an intermediate rate). The registered cases of stomach cancer were from the Osaka Cancer Registry, the Slovenian National Cancer Registry and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries in the USA. In the period 1975-95, the age-adjusted incidence rate (/100,000) of stomach cancer declined in the 3 countries, as follows: Japan, from 76.0 to 53.0 in men and 38.4 to 21.3 in women; Slovenia, from 40.2 to 24.1 in men and 16.6 to 10.8 in women; and the USA, from 9.5 to 6.9 in men and 4.3 to 2.9 in women. During the same period, the age-adjusted mortality rate declined, as follows: Japan, from 60.2 to 34.2 in men and 30.5 to 14.1 in women; Slovenia, from 37.7 to 21.2 in men and 13.8 to 9.0 in women; the USA, from 5.6 to 4.7 in men and 2.5 to 2.3 in women. In the period studied, specific trends on incidence and mortality with a cohort effect occurred only in Japan: analysis by the age period-cohort model confirmed that the decline has occurred since the generations born in 1910. The trend therefore corresponds to unplanned prevention through changes in environmental factors occurring since the early 20 th century. The study of stage-specific incidence rates confirmed the declining trend for regional cancer, whereas there was an increase in the incidence of localized cancer, associated with a period effect in 1975-95. This is attributed to the policy of early detection of stomach cancer, with the inclusion of intramucosal lesions of favorable prognosis and explains why mortality decreased faster than incidence during the period.

show abstract

Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age–period–cohort models

Cited by 773 publications

References 12 publications

Profound changes in breast cancer incidence may reflect changes into a Westernized lifestyle: A comparative population‐based study in Singapore and Sweden

Profound changes in breast cancer incidence may reflect changes into a Westernized lifestyle: A comparative population‐based study in Singapore and Sweden

Estimation and projection of the national profile of cancer mortality in China: 1991–2005

Incidence and mortality from stomach cancer in Japan, Slovenia and the USA

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About