Models of foot-and-mouth disease

Abstract

During the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK, three very different models were used in an attempt to predict the disease dynamics and inform control measures. This was one of the first times that models had been used during an epidemic to support the decision-making process. It is probable that models will play a pivotal role in any future livestock epidemics, and it is therefore important that decision makers, veterinarians and farmers understand the uses and limitations of models. This review describes the utility of models in general before focusing on the three foot-and-mouth disease models used in 2001. Finally, the future of modelling is discussed, analysing the advances needed if models are to be successfully applied during any subsequent epidemics.

Modelling Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Dynamics in Oral Epithelium to Help Identify the Determinants of Lysis

“…In contrast to a significant body of work modelling the epidemiology of FMD (see for example Keeling, 2005, and references therein), focusing on the transmission of disease between farms, there are almost no models of within-host dynamics, with the exception of the whole animal model developed by Quan et al (Quan, 2005;Howey et al, 2008). Here we investigate the first of a planned family of models exploring the dynamics FMDV infected epithelium.…”

Deterministic epidemiological models at the individual level

“…By contrast, stochastic simulation methods [10] have been successfully employed in the description of very complicated systems to investigate threshold conditions and to evaluate the efficacy of methods of disease control [9,15,27]. In general, stochastic modelling approaches are found to be much more flexible than their deterministic counterparts.…”

Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock

“…In the case of foot and mouth disease in the UK, detailed mathematical models have been used to answer these questions with varying degrees of success (e.g. Ferguson et al 2001;Keeling 2005).…”