Models of Making Decisions to Select the Techniques for Countering Innovative Project Risks

Abstract

The subject matter of the study is the risks of an innovative project. The goal of the article is to develop models of making decisions to select the techniques for countering innovative project risks. The following tasks are solved in the article: the features of managing innovative project risk are analyzed, a generalized model of the project risk management is developed, the mechanisms to counter the innovative risks are analyzed, a decision tree is developed to select the technique to counter innovative project risks, a formalized method and a process model are developed to select a preferred technique for risk insurance. The following methods are applied-system analysis, project approach, risk-based approach, heuristic decision-making methods, process models. The following results are obtained: the analysis of the features of managing innovative project risks showed the possibility of reducing the cost of risk by modern techniques of countering financial risks, including insurance in its various forms. A generalized model of managing innovative project risks is proposed; this model includes the stages of developing possible measures to counter risks and making decisions on selecting the preferred option. The probable types of innovation project risks, methods of their assessment under uncertainty are considered. The techniques to counter innovation risks, including the types of project risk insurance, are analyzed. A decision tree is developed to select a technique for countering risk based on a number of its characteristics that are defined according to the qualitative and classification scale. The suggested technique is formalized for selecting a mechanism to insure project risks, taking into account the probabilities of specific risks, their costs and the general insurance fund of a project. A process model is developed to select the preferred technique of insurance, taking into account the integral assessment of an innovation risk. Conclusions. The use of the developed models while planning the risk management of an innovative project increases the validity and reliability of decisions concerning the selection of a technique for countering risks, taking into account the characteristics of specific risks, the magnitude of the integral risk and the features of a particular project. K e ywor d s : innovative project, risk probability, risk mitigation, risk countering techniques, risk insurance.