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Aim. To determine the patterns of the climate change impact on the transformation of agricultural production and the ecosystem of Ukrainian Polissia in terms of time and space. Methods. Satellite and statistical data for the last 40 years (1982–2022) were used. The mean temperature for the vegetation period was defined by the sum of radiation temperatures of the terrestrial surface, calculated using the data of the infrared range (10.3–11.3; 11.4–12.4 μm) of the high-precision AVHRR radiometer of artificial meteorological Earth's satellites, NOAA, and the precipitation dynamics – using the data of ERA5 ECMWF/Copernicus Climate Change Service. The impact of climate change on the vegetation state and phenological parameters, including the beginning, end, and duration of the vegetation season, was determined by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), obtained using the data of the infrared (0.72–1.1 μm) and red (0.58–0.68 μm) ranges of the AVHRR radiometer on the website of STAR NESDIS NOAA. Crop yields and the dynamics of sown areas were determined by the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The information about the dynamics of the forest cover was obtained using the Global Forest Watch satellite data. To evaluate the impact of climate change on Ukraine's forests, the investigation was conducted on burnt forest areas, using the MCD64A1 6.1 index, developed on the basis of the MODIS satellite data. Results. According to the satellite data, the radiation temperature of the terrestrial surface during the growing period increased by 2.2 ºС on average in the territory of Ukrainian Polissia over the last 40 years. There is a regional difference in the temperature regime observed in the direction from west to east. In the territory of western Polissia, the increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface in recent decades was within the range of 1.2–1.6, and in the central and eastern parts – within 2.3–2.9 ºС. Due to the warming, the duration of the growing period was extended by 21–35 days, mostly because of earlier spring onset. There is a descending trend in the average annual precipitation amount down to 20–30 mm, which is especially notable for central and eastern Polissia. The warming was the reason for the introduction of the crops, new for this region, into the structure of sown areas, especially corn and sunflower, which had a generally positive effect on the vegetation state by the NDVI index, which increased from 0.30 in 1982–1992 to 0.36 in 2012–2022 on average. The crop yield increased accordingly, and according to the statistical data for the recent years, amounted to: corn – 7.0–9.5 t/ha, winter wheat – 4.5–5.0, and sunflower – 1.5–2.0 t/ha, which is close to the level of their yield on chornozem. At the same time, due to climate change and the transformation of agricultural activity, there has been a higher risk of deterioration in the ecological state of typical Polissia landscapes, droughts, and soil degradation. According to the results of the analysis of twenty-two years of the dynamics in forest fires, the largest areas of burnt forests were registered in 2012 (694.30 sq.km), 2015 (1,078.81 sq.km), and 2020 (776.27 sq.km), which demonstrated the increase in fires during the recent decade along with the tendency towards longer fire hazard period. Conclusions. The increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface of the Ukrainian Polissia during the growing period and the lengthening of the growing period created the conditions for corn and sunflower to be introduced into the arable areas, which had a positive impact on the vegetation state index, NDVI. As a result of these transformations both in the sown area of these crops and their yield, Polissia is becoming a new grain-oil belt of Ukraine. Concurrently, there are higher risks associated with maintaining high performance of agroecosystems and the increase in the risks for soil degradation processes, the deterioration of the ecological state of wetlands and forests, as well as drying-out of small rivers and lakes. Balancing the high yield of modern agroecosystems and safe nature management requires systemic measures in adapting the agricultural activity and nature management to new climatic conditions, which requires implementing the management of soil, water, and bio-resources, achieving optimal parameters of fertility for mineral and peaty-swampy soils. Reconstructing current land reclamation systems to optimize water regimes for the agricultural lands and protect typical Polissia ecosystem is needed.
Aim. To determine the patterns of the climate change impact on the transformation of agricultural production and the ecosystem of Ukrainian Polissia in terms of time and space. Methods. Satellite and statistical data for the last 40 years (1982–2022) were used. The mean temperature for the vegetation period was defined by the sum of radiation temperatures of the terrestrial surface, calculated using the data of the infrared range (10.3–11.3; 11.4–12.4 μm) of the high-precision AVHRR radiometer of artificial meteorological Earth's satellites, NOAA, and the precipitation dynamics – using the data of ERA5 ECMWF/Copernicus Climate Change Service. The impact of climate change on the vegetation state and phenological parameters, including the beginning, end, and duration of the vegetation season, was determined by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), obtained using the data of the infrared (0.72–1.1 μm) and red (0.58–0.68 μm) ranges of the AVHRR radiometer on the website of STAR NESDIS NOAA. Crop yields and the dynamics of sown areas were determined by the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The information about the dynamics of the forest cover was obtained using the Global Forest Watch satellite data. To evaluate the impact of climate change on Ukraine's forests, the investigation was conducted on burnt forest areas, using the MCD64A1 6.1 index, developed on the basis of the MODIS satellite data. Results. According to the satellite data, the radiation temperature of the terrestrial surface during the growing period increased by 2.2 ºС on average in the territory of Ukrainian Polissia over the last 40 years. There is a regional difference in the temperature regime observed in the direction from west to east. In the territory of western Polissia, the increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface in recent decades was within the range of 1.2–1.6, and in the central and eastern parts – within 2.3–2.9 ºС. Due to the warming, the duration of the growing period was extended by 21–35 days, mostly because of earlier spring onset. There is a descending trend in the average annual precipitation amount down to 20–30 mm, which is especially notable for central and eastern Polissia. The warming was the reason for the introduction of the crops, new for this region, into the structure of sown areas, especially corn and sunflower, which had a generally positive effect on the vegetation state by the NDVI index, which increased from 0.30 in 1982–1992 to 0.36 in 2012–2022 on average. The crop yield increased accordingly, and according to the statistical data for the recent years, amounted to: corn – 7.0–9.5 t/ha, winter wheat – 4.5–5.0, and sunflower – 1.5–2.0 t/ha, which is close to the level of their yield on chornozem. At the same time, due to climate change and the transformation of agricultural activity, there has been a higher risk of deterioration in the ecological state of typical Polissia landscapes, droughts, and soil degradation. According to the results of the analysis of twenty-two years of the dynamics in forest fires, the largest areas of burnt forests were registered in 2012 (694.30 sq.km), 2015 (1,078.81 sq.km), and 2020 (776.27 sq.km), which demonstrated the increase in fires during the recent decade along with the tendency towards longer fire hazard period. Conclusions. The increase in the temperature of the terrestrial surface of the Ukrainian Polissia during the growing period and the lengthening of the growing period created the conditions for corn and sunflower to be introduced into the arable areas, which had a positive impact on the vegetation state index, NDVI. As a result of these transformations both in the sown area of these crops and their yield, Polissia is becoming a new grain-oil belt of Ukraine. Concurrently, there are higher risks associated with maintaining high performance of agroecosystems and the increase in the risks for soil degradation processes, the deterioration of the ecological state of wetlands and forests, as well as drying-out of small rivers and lakes. Balancing the high yield of modern agroecosystems and safe nature management requires systemic measures in adapting the agricultural activity and nature management to new climatic conditions, which requires implementing the management of soil, water, and bio-resources, achieving optimal parameters of fertility for mineral and peaty-swampy soils. Reconstructing current land reclamation systems to optimize water regimes for the agricultural lands and protect typical Polissia ecosystem is needed.
Introduction. To restore and preserve the optimal ecological status of the Western Bug river basin, it is necessary to adhere to the strategic principles of environmental management, and since the river is transboundary and tributary basins are located in Ukraine and Poland, it is important to determine the ecological status of small rivers. In the territory of the Volyn region, the rivers-tributaries Luha and Studyanka are most affected by anthropogenic impact. An ecological assessment of water quality based on the condition of macrophytes is given, as macrophytes llow to determine the degree of surface water degradation, first of all, in terms of their trophic status. The purpose of article. The purpose of article aims to assess the ecological status of the rivers of the Western Bug river basin using bioindication methods and determination of the Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR). Methods. Research methods are expeditionary, methods of mathematical statistics end bioindication methods and determination of the Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR). Results. To determine the ecological status of the rivers of the Western Bug basin and to conduct research, three test sites with a length of at least 100 m were laid on two tributaries of the first order - the rivers Luha and Studyanka. To determine the MIR (Macrophyte Index for Rivers) in the test riverbed areas, 42 indicator species of macrophytes were selected, of which 1 species belongs to the division Polipodiophyta and Equisetophyta, 40 species to the division Magnoliophyta, of which 15 belong to the class Magnoliopsida, and 25 belong to the class Liliopsida. According to the classification of the MIR indicator, to determine the ecological status, the rivers Luha and Studyanka belong to lowland watercourses, with the type of macrophytes - M-VIII (organic rivers). As a result of the calculated Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR), it was established (Table 4) that the water quality in the Luha river in test site 1 (Zavydiv village) has a good ecological status, MIR is 39,0; and test site 2 (Volodymyr-Volynskyi city) has a satisfactory or moderate ecological status, MIR is 31,56; in the river Studyanka, the test site 3 (Ustyluh town) has a satisfactory or moderate ecological condition, MIR is 28,31. Conclusions. According to the ecological status of rivers determined by the Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR), it is established that the waters of the Luha and Studyanka rivers have a satisfactory or moderate ecological condition. This suggests that the research conducted on test sites and calculations of the Macrophyte Index for Rivers (MIR) are identical and fully reflect the ecological status of the rivers Luha and Studyanka determined by hydrochemical parameters, which allows the use of this research algorithm for other rivers in the Western Bug river basin and is promising during research on other rivers of Ukraine.
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