Modernization in the National Weather Service River and Flood Program

Fread, D. L.; Shedd, Robert; Smith, George F.; Farnsworth, R.K.; Hoffeditz, C.N.; Wenzel, Lauren; Wiele, Stephen M.; Smith, Jim; Day, Gerald

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1995)010<0477:mitnws>2.0.co;2

Cited by 47 publications

(24 citation statements)

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“…The climatology model that we developed, however, can provide reasonable cumulative rainfall estimate for each river basin and around the whole island. The emergency management personnel can use this information in hazard mitigation (Fread et al, 1995) before a typhoon hits the island. However, the climatology model requires a well forecasted typhoon track.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the hazard mitigation point of view, the early warning of torrential rain, especially at areas vulnerable to inundation or debris flow is highly desirable (Fread et al, 1995). In real-time practice, the flood warning is issued based on the inundation maps which were constructed for different rainfall amounts.…”

Section: The Evaluation Of the Typhoon Rainfall Climatology Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan

et al. 2006

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The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989-2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R 2 value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the DanShui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R 2 values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Evaluation Of the Typhoon Rainfall Climatology Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan

et al. 2006

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“…There are 13 RFCs across the country, and each one is responsible for a different set of basins. A more detailed description of NWS river-forecasting operations can be found in Stallings and Wenzel (1995), Larson et al (1995), andFread et al (1995). In addition, the NWS RFCs describe their operations on their home pages, which can be found via the NWS home page (online at http://nws.noaa.gov).…”

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confidence: 99%

Hydrologic Verification: A Call for Action and Collaboration

Welles¹,

Sorooshian²,

Carter³

et al. 2007

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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A brief verification study of river forecasts suggests the need to link river forecast process improvements more closely to forecast verification results. V erification must be an integral element of forecasting. Well-structured verification provides a means to improve forecast skill, to communicate with nonforecasters regarding resource needs, and to help forecast users optimize their decision making. Within the hydrology community however, few have focused any attention on verifying river forecasts. As a step toward encouraging hydrologists to verify their forecasts, this paper presents a verification study of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ National Weather Service (NWS) deterministic riverstage forecasts at 15 locations. The results of this study AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY suggest that the hydrologic research and operations communities must join together to review, evaluate, and reconstruct the methods by which they update the hydrologic forecast process.The verification results described in this paper are for river-stage forecasts issued by NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The NWS RFCs sit at the center of the U.S. flood warning capability. They provide guidance to the NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), which in turn issue flood watches and warnings. The NWS RFCs coordinate with other state and federal water management agencies when they issue their forecasts to ensure dam operations, irrigation demand and the like are integrated into the forecasts. There are 13 RFCs across the country, and each one is responsible for a different set of basins. A more detailed description of NWS river-forecasting operations can be found in Stallings and Wenzel (1995), Larson et al. (1995), andFread et al. (1995). In addition, the NWS RFCs describe their operations on their home pages, which can be found via the NWS home page (online at http://nws.noaa.gov).

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“…Samples of the actual river stages were extracted from archives of the US National Weather Service (NWS). Samples of the model river stages were produced via simulation performed at the NWS Ohio River Forecast Center using archived real-time input data and the operational forecast system (OFS) whose description can be found in Hudlow (1988) and Fread et al (1995). The OFS is a collection of hydrologic operations.…”

Section: Forecast Points and Hydrologic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%