Modified Method of Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on ARIMA Class Models with Data Verification

Holiachenko, Anastasiia; Lyushenko, Lesya; Strutsynsky, Oleksii

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-04809-8_11

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 4 publications

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“…They created a model that can directly predict the price direction by specifying whether to buy, sell or hold, and they concluded that the model they created correctly predicts the price movement in two cryptocurrencies. Holiachenko et al (2022) aimed to explain cryptocurrencies using fundamental and technical analysis. A technical analysis method was developed with different currencies in the same stock market in order to achieve maximum gain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blockchain-based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with Chaos Theory, Onchain Analysis, Sentiment Analysis and Fundamental-Technical Analysis

Akgül

Şahin

ŞENOL

2022

Chaos Theory and Applications

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Crypto assets succeeded in making their name known to large masses with Bitcoin, which emerged as a result of the creation of the first genesis block in 2008. Until 2010, the aforementioned recognition showed itself mostly in areas such as games, but over time it managed to enter the portfolios of individual investors. Especially as of end of 2017, the rapid increases in monetary value quickly attracted the attention of corporate companies and then the (Central Banks). These assets have created different alternatives (also know as altcoins) by working and have managed to become one of the important financial instruments today. This study has examined in detail the techniques (Chaos, Onchain and Sentiment) developed on the price predictions of crypto assets, which are very important in terms of the number and quality of investors. In the study, findings were obtained that new techniques such as onchain and sentiment are more prominent in estimating crypto asset prices compared to traditional asset price estimation methods of crypto assets and that these techniques can make consistent estimations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blockchain-based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with Chaos Theory, Onchain Analysis, Sentiment Analysis and Fundamental-Technical Analysis

Akgül

Şahin

ŞENOL

2022

Chaos Theory and Applications

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Software Expert System for Choosing Cryptocurrency Forecasting Algorithms in Real-Time

Holiachenko,

Lіushenko

2023

Control syst. comput.

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Introduction. Today there is a large number of cryptocurrencies in the world with their own unique characteristics. Traders and investors working in the cryptocurrency market use various software to analyze and forecast the exchange rate of cryptocurrencies. The ability to correctly and quickly make decisions using the results of cryptocurrency rate forecasting is currently defined as a key goal for traders, investors and analysts of this market. Purpose. In this article, the existing methods of analysis and forecasting of the exchange rate on cryptocurrency exchanges were considered, namely – fundamental and technical analysis, machine learning, news flow analysis, and a hybrid approach. During the study, it was demonstrated that different algorithms can have a high level of probability of predictions in a specific situation and with optimized parameters, but at the same time show much lower probability indicators with the slightest change in parameters or dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rate. Accordingly, a perfect method with universal parameters that will always consistently show high results in the probability of predictions does not exist. The implementation of a software automatic expert system for choosing algorithms in real-time will allow automatically choose the best algorithm for cryptocurrency forecasting based on the analysis of the effectiveness of algorithms over the last N iterations in the past. Methods. By the development of automatic expert system for choosing cryptocurrency forecasting algorithms in real-time. Results. The process of analyzing and forecasting the cryptocurrency exchange rates with an existing software expert system for choosing algorithms for cryptocurrency forecasting is considered, and the logic of the operation of such an expert system is presented. Also, ways to solve problems that may arise during the application of this system were identified and substantiated. Conclusion. The alternative approach to the analysis and forecasting of cryptocurrencies in real-time was implemented in the software expert system for choosing alghorithms, which allows stabilizing the high probability of the exchange rate forecasts on the cryptocurrency market in comparison with the use of only one method or the hybridization of several methods.

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Modified Method of Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on ARIMA Class Models with Data Verification

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

Blockchain-based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with Chaos Theory, Onchain Analysis, Sentiment Analysis and Fundamental-Technical Analysis

Blockchain-based Cryptocurrency Price Prediction with Chaos Theory, Onchain Analysis, Sentiment Analysis and Fundamental-Technical Analysis

Software Expert System for Choosing Cryptocurrency Forecasting Algorithms in Real-Time

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