Background
Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is an aggressive skin cancer with a recurrence rate of >40%. Of the 2000 MCC cases/year in the USA, most are caused by the Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV). Antibodies to MCPyV-oncoprotein (T-antigens) have been correlated with MCC tumor burden. We prospectively validated the clinical utility of MCPyV oncoprotein antibody titers for MCC prognostication and surveillance.
Methods
MCPyV-oncoprotein antibody detection was optimized in a clinical laboratory. A cohort of 219 patients with newly-diagnosed MCC were followed prospectively (median follow-up 1.9 years). Among seropositive patients, antibody titer and disease status were serially tracked.
Results
Antibodies to MCPyV-oncoproteins were rare among healthy individuals (1%) but present in most MCC patients (114 of 219, 52%, p<0.01). Seropositivity at diagnosis independently predicted decreased recurrence risk (HR=0.58; p=0.04) in multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, stage, and immunosuppression. Following initial treatment, seropositive patients whose disease did not recur had rapidly falling titers that became negative by a median of 8.4 months. Among seropositive patients who underwent serial evaluation (71 patients; 282 timepoints), an increasing oncoprotein titer had a positive predictive value of 66% for clinically evident recurrence while a decreasing titer had a negative predictive value of 97%.
Conclusions
Determination of oncoprotein antibody titer assists in the clinical management of newly diagnosed MCC patients by stratifying them into a higher risk seronegative cohort in whom radiologic imaging may play a more prominent role, and into a lower-risk seropositive cohort whose disease status can be tracked in part via oncoprotein antibody titer.