Molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from patients with morbilliform eruptions since late 2019 in Lombardy, northern Italy

Amendola, Antonella; Canuti, Marta; Bianchi, Silvia; Kumar, Sudhir; Fappani, Clara; Gori, María; Colzani, Daniela; Pond, Sergei L. Kosakovsky; Miura, Sayaka; Baggieri, Melissa; Marchi, Antonella; Borghi, Elisa; Zuccotti, Gianvincenzo; Raviglione, Mario C.; Magurano, Fabio; Tanzi, Elisabetta

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2022.113979

Cited by 20 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Our simulations yield an estimated median number of days between the 1 st SARS-CoV-2 infection to the N th symptomatic COVID-19 case recorded of 54 (95%IqR: 43-80) days, dating the emergence (i.e., the first sustained human infection) of SARS-CoV-2 to November 26 (95%IqR: October 31-December 7), 2019, and not earlier than September 28, 2019. This also implies that the epidemic remained completely undetected (i.e., no detected infections) for about [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] days. These findings are depicted in Figure 2, along with the observed epidemic curve (i.e., COVID-19 cases dataset) as well as recently published estimates of the date of emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] (personal communication of the distributions), for comparison.…”

Section: Estimating the Date Of Emergence Of Sars-cov-2 In Wuhanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak

Jijón

Czuppon

Blanquart

et al. 2023

Preprint

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While the first infection by an emerging disease is often unknown, information on early cases can be used to date it, which is of great interest to trace the disease's origin and understand early infection dynamics. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies have estimated the date of emergence (e.g., first human SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, emergence of the Alpha variant in the UK) using mainly genomic data. Another dating attempt only relied on case data, estimating a date of emergence using a non-Markovian stochastic model and considering the first case detection. Here, we extend this stochastic approach to use available data of the whole early case dynamics. Our model provides estimates of the delay from the first infection to the Nthreported case. We first validate our model using data concerning the spread of the Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variant in the UK. Our results suggest that the first Alpha infection occurred on (median) August 20 (95% interquantile range across retained simulations, IqR: July 20-September 4), 2020. Next, we apply our model to data on the early reported cases of COVID-19. We used data on the date of symptom onset up to mid-January, 2020. We date the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan at (median) November 26 (95%IqR: October 31-December 7), 2019. Our results fall within ranges previously estimated by studies relying on genomic data. Our population dynamics-based modelling framework is generic and flexible, and thus can be applied to estimate the starting time of outbreaks, in contexts other than COVID-19, as long as some key parameters (such as transmission and detection rates) are known.

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Section: Estimating the Date Of Emergence Of Sars-cov-2 In Wuhanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using early detection data to estimate the date of emergence of an epidemic outbreak

Jijón

Czuppon

Blanquart

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In turn, Kaushik et al (2022) showed a novel structure-based approach for identification of vertebrate susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, with implications for future surveillance programs. Amendola et al (2022) published a study on molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from patients with morbilliform eruptions since late 2019 in Lombardy (Italy), while the research made by Djordjevic et al (2023) focused on understanding risk factors of a new variant outburst through global analysis of Omicron transmissibility. Other papers published in the VSI were the study by Zhao et al (2022) , who made a contribution on the global transmission of new coronavirus variants, and the investigation by Desingu et al (2022) , who showed details on how SARS-CoV-2 gained a novel spike protein S1–N-Terminal Domain (S1-NTD).…”

Section: Comments On Papers Published In the Virtual Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific evidence on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

Núñez‐Delgado¹,

Ahmed

Romande

et al. 2023

Environmental Research

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“…It is indeed possible that a progenitor of the virus has been circulating worldwide giving low-level infections and not inducing severe respiratory disease to the same extent as the Wuhan virus. A recent study reports early identification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a patient with measles-like syndrome in September 2019 in Italy [8], and indicated other SARS-CoV-2 RNA sequences obtained from samples collected in Brazil in November 2019. They concluded that a potential progenitor of the B.1 strain may have circulated worldwide since June-July 2019, before the Wuhan outbreak.…”

mentioning

confidence: 94%