7Parallel evolution is consistently observed across the tree of life. How-8 ever, the degree of parallelism between replicate populations in evolution 9 experiments is rarely quantified at the gene level. Here we examine par-10 allel evolution as the degree of covariance between replicate populations, 11 providing a justification for the use of dimensionality reduction. We ex-12 amine the extent that signals of gene-level covariance can be inferred in 13 microbial evolve-and-resequence evolution experiments, finding that devi-14 ations from parallelism are difficult to quantify at a given point in time. 15 However, this low statistical signal means that covariance between repli-16 cate populations is unlikely to interfere with the ability to detect diver-17 gent evolutionary trajectories for populations in different environments. 18 Finally, we find evidence suggesting that temporal patterns of parallelism 19 are comparatively easier to detect and that these patterns may reflect the 20 evolutionary dynamics of microbial populations. 21 22 23Parallel evolution occurs when independent populations evolve similar phenotypes 24 and genotypes. Observed across the tree of life [12, 41, 27], parallel evolution has 25 historically been viewed as a singular outcome that is representative of adaptation 26 [24]. However, parallelism is not binary [8, 47, 32]. Instead, parallelism is a continuous 27 quantity that captures the variation in evolutionary outcomes, allowing for researchers 28 to test hypotheses about the extent that evolutionary and ecological forces affect the 29 repeatability of evolutionary outcomes relative to a null expectation.
30The idea that parallelism should be viewed as a quantity is particularly suited 31 to the experimental study of microbial evolution, where many large populations with 32 short generation times can be simultaneously maintained. In microbial systems the 33 same evolutionary outcome can repeatedly occur across levels of biological organiza-34 tion, ranging from nucleotide sites repeatedly acquiring the same mutation [7] to phe-35 notypes consistently changing in the same direction and magnitude [17] to predator-36 prey systems repeatedly evolving similar dynamics [18]. The experimental tractability 37 of many microbial systems also allows for the degree of parallelism to be examined 38 across diverse ecological scenarios. For example, it has been argued that an excep-39 tional degree of parallel outcomes has been observed in evolution experiments where 40 microbial populations adapt to high temperatures [50], alternative resources [21], and 41 the introduction of new species [45]. The power of experimental microbial evolution 42 provides unique opportunities for the degree of variation in evolutionary outcomes to 43 be examined across biological hierarchies and environments. 44 Parallel evolution can be found across biological scales, though it is not equally 45 likely at each scale. Independently evolving bacterial populations are unlikely to ac-46 quire mutations at the ...