Momentum and Media in the 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

Abstract

This article uses Aldrich's (2009) formula to devise “momentum scores” that allow us to track momentum for the major candidates in the 2012 Republican presidential nomination throughout the primary season. Though Mitt Romney had a major advantage in fundraising and endorsements before the primaries began, his biggest gains in momentum came late in the primary season. We compare momentum changes to media mentions and tone of coverage derived from content analysis of major newspapers. Though media content corresponds with changes in momentum for each candidate, the media response to momentum for the front‐runner is weaker compared with his competitors.

Partisan Dynamics in Presidential Primaries and Campaign Divisiveness

“…The theory of over-rewarding Republicans for wins depends on campaign narratives constructed around winners and losers, which are frequently developed from delegate counts, but these track very closely with vote percentages. Using voting percentages or wins rather than delegate totals is also consistent with previous research (Mayer, 2003;McGowen & Palazzolo, 2014;Steger, 2007Steger, , 2008. One variable is included in some models, which captures whether a candidate won a winner-take-all (delegates) state in the 2008, 2012, or 2016 campaigns.…”

“…The importance of money and endorsements is increasingly valuable in an era of primary front-loading as the attention received by early states has encouraged other states to move their primaries up (Adkins & Dowdle, 2002;Ridout & Rottinghaus, 2008). Money and endorsements produce electoral success that generates additional media attention, especially early in the campaign season (Bartels, 1988;McGowen & Palazzolo, 2014), as well as more campaign donations (Christenson & Smidt, 2011), begetting additional success. "Winning" the invisible primary allows candidates access to voters, and serves as a signal of general election viability and shared preferences (A. J.…”

Coverage and Campaign Coffers in 2012: Enduring Strategies and Changes in Presidential Primaries

“…This is not the only reasonable measure of momentum: other studies have looked at who won the Iowa or New Hampshire nominating contests (Haynes and Murray ; Adkinsand Dowdle) or use Aldrich’s () momentum model, which combines media expectations of results with actual election results. However, this study follows the example of other analyses of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination (McGowen and Palazzolo ) in using poll results (national, in this case, in contrast to their use of state‐level results, combined with media coverage).…”

“…Had there been only one or two candidates, voters might have been able to base their decision on their like or dislike of one candidate or the perceived conservatism of the candidates, but with five viable candidates, there was no simple decision to be made. Even if voters were simply looking to support the candidate who seemed to have the best chance of beating Romney for the nomination, they would have needed to be paying close attention to the polls to figure out who that was at the moment (McGowen and Palazzolo )…”

Mitt Romney, Mormonism, and the Media: Popular Depictions of a Religious Minority

“…Romney had a longer campaign season, contending with competitors who at various times appeared to be Republican front‐runners, including Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Ernest B. McGowen and Daniel J. Palazzo's analysis of the 2012 election compares the “momentum scores” of the various Republican candidates during the campaign and finds that the media downplayed Romney's late‐campaign momentum compared with its coverage of his competitors. McGowen and Palazzo make no mention of Romney's Mormon faith.…”