Monarch butterfly spatially discrete advection model

Yakubu, Abdul‐Aziz; Saenz, Roberto A.; Stein, Julie; Jones, Laura

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2004.03.002

Cited by 20 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The following is a balance equation for the size of the overwintering population in Mexico from 1 year, G W , i , to the next, G W , i +1 , as a product of 4 key ecological processes:

{normalG}_{W, i + 1} = {normalG}_{W, i} \times OW {normalS}_{normali} \times J {normalN}_{normali} \times {((), G_{1} : G_{5})}_{normali} \times J {normalS}_{normali},

where OWS i is the proportion that survives the winter, JN i is the proportion that survives the journey north in the spring, (G 1 : G 5 ) i is both breeding “success” and survival or population change/increase over 4–5 generations produced in the spring–summer period, and JS i is the proportion of the population that survives the journey south in the autumn (see also Yakubu et al ., ). We use this equation to ask, what may have precipitated a sustained decline in monarch numbers in Mexico (Fig.…”

Section: What Are the Threatening Processes?mentioning

confidence: 97%

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

et al. 2016

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We review the postulated threatening processes that may have affected the decline in the eastern population of the monarch butterfly, Danaus plexippus L. (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), in North America. Although there are likely multiple contributing factors, such as climate and resource-related effects on breeding, migrating, and overwintering populations, the key landscape-level change appears to be associated with the widespread use of genetically modified herbicide resistant crops that have rapidly come to dominate the extensive core summer breeding range. We dismiss misinterpretations of the apparent lack of population change in summer adult count data as logically flawed. Glyphosate-tolerant soybean and maize have enabled the extensive use of this herbicide, generating widespread losses of milkweed (Asclepias spp.), the only host plants for monarch larvae. Modeling studies that simulate lifetime realized fecundity at a landscape scale, direct counts of milkweeds, and extensive citizen science data across the breeding range suggest that a herbicide-induced, landscape-level reduction in milkweed has precipitated the decline in monarchs. A recovery will likely require a monumental effort for the re-establishment of milkweed resources at a commensurate landscape scale.

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“…The following is a balance equation for the size of the overwintering population in Mexico from 1 year, G W , i , to the next, G W , i +1 , as a product of 4 key ecological processes:

{normalG}_{W, i + 1} = {normalG}_{W, i} \times OW {normalS}_{normali} \times J {normalN}_{normali} \times {((), G_{1} : G_{5})}_{normali} \times J {normalS}_{normali},

Section: What Are the Threatening Processes?mentioning

confidence: 97%

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

et al. 2016

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“…Notably, although organisms in diapause are developmentally suspended, they remain physiologically active and can even be mobile. For example, C. elegans in the dauer state can move long distance searching for new food sources (Frezal & Felix, 2015) and Monarch butterfly in its reproductive diapause form can migrate over 3,000 miles from southern Canada and Midwestern United States to overwintering sites in central Mexico (Tatar & Yin, 2001; Yakubu, Saenz, Stein & Jones, 2004). Invertebrate systems have also revealed organismal and genetic links between diapause and aging.…”

Section: Using the African Turquoise Killifish As A Research Organismmentioning

confidence: 99%

The African turquoise killifish: A research organism to study vertebrate aging and diapause

Brunet²

2018

Aging Cell

136

118

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SummaryThe African turquoise killifish has recently gained significant traction as a new research organism in the aging field. Our understanding of aging has strongly benefited from canonical research organisms—yeast, C. elegans, Drosophila, zebrafish, and mice. Many characteristics that are essential to understand aging—for example, the adaptive immune system or the hypothalamo‐pituitary axis—are only present in vertebrates (zebrafish and mice). However, zebrafish and mice live more than 3 years and their relatively long lifespans are not compatible with high‐throughput studies. Therefore, the turquoise killifish, a vertebrate with a naturally compressed lifespan of only 4–6 months, fills an essential gap to understand aging. With a recently developed genomic and genetic toolkit, the turquoise killifish not only provides practical advantages for lifespan and longitudinal experiments, but also allows more systematic characterizations of the interplay between genetics and environment during vertebrate aging. Interestingly, the turquoise killifish can also enter a long‐term dormant state during development called diapause. Killifish embryos in diapause already have some organs and tissues, and they can last in this state for years, exhibiting exceptional resistance to stress and to damages due to the passage of time. Understanding the diapause state could give new insights into strategies to prevent the damage caused by aging and to better preserve organs, tissues, and cells. Thus, the African turquoise killifish brings two interesting aspects to the aging field—a compressed lifespan and a long‐term resistant diapause state, both of which should spark new discoveries in the field.

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“…The principal reasons for this large uncertainty in the trajectory of monarchs and their subsequent risk of further decline are the environmental and biological variability this insect faces over its annual cycle and our ability to intuit the species response to this variability with the limited data available from monitoring programs. Density-independent mortality, caused by a wide array of annually variable environmental stressors, is offset against density-dependent reproduction (Yakubu et al, 2004;Drury and Dwyer, 2006;Flockhart et al, 2012;Marini and Zalucki, 2017), and this tension between birth and death processes plays out over multiple generations and across the vastness of eastern North America (Flockhart et al, 2015;Oberhauser et al, 2017). In some years, these processes complement one another, leading to booms or busts in the population (Himes Boor et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for a Growing Population of Eastern Migratory Monarch Butterflies Is Currently Insufficient

2020

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The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies has experienced a multidecadal decline, but a recent increase in abundance (to 6.05 ha in winter 2018) has led some observers to question whether the population has reversed its long-standing decline and embarked on a trajectory of increasing abundance. We examined this possibility through changepoint analyses, assessing whether a change in trajectory existed over a 25-year times series. We found evidence of a change in trajectory in 2014, but insufficient statistical support for a significantly increasing population since that time (β = 0.285, 95% CI = −0.127, 0.697). If the population estimate for winter 2019 is ≥4.0 ha, we will then be able to credibly assert the population has been increasing since 2014. However, given estimated levels of time series variability, presumed habitat capacity and no recent change in status or trend, there was a 13.5% probability of observing a population estimate as large or larger than was reported for winter 2018. Our analyses highlight the incredible difficulty in drawing robust conclusions from annual changes in abundance over a short time series, especially for an insect that commonly exhibits considerable year-to-year variation. Thus, we urge caution when drawing conclusions regarding species status and trends for any species for which limited data are available.

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Monarch butterfly spatially discrete advection model

Cited by 20 publications

References 38 publications

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape‐level effect of modern agriculture

The African turquoise killifish: A research organism to study vertebrate aging and diapause

Evidence for a Growing Population of Eastern Migratory Monarch Butterflies Is Currently Insufficient

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