The reliability of visual perception is thought to reflect the quality of the sensory information. However, we show that subjects' performance can be predicted, trial-by-trial, by neural activity that precedes the onset of a sensory stimulus. Using functional MRI (fMRI), we studied how neural mechanisms that mediate spatial attention affect the accuracy of a motion discrimination judgment. The amplitude of blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signals after a cue directing spatial attention predicted subjects' accuracy on 60 -75% of the trials. Widespread predictive signals, which included dorsal parietal, visual extra-striate, prefrontal and sensory-motor cortex, depended on whether the cue correctly specified the stimulus location. Therefore, these signals indicate the degree of utilization of the cued information and play a role in the control of spatial attention. We conclude that variability in perceptual performance can be partly explained by the variability in endogenous, preparatory processes and that BOLD signals can be used to forecast human behavior.functional MRI Í performance variability Í cue utilization Í reward V isual perception depends on the quality of sensory information and the fidelity of its neural representation. Recent experiments have emphasized the importance of endogenous processes such as attention, working memory, and motor planning, in modulating sensory activity (1-4). Furthermore, current theories and empirical results suggest that the brain maintains an on-line internal representation of the world that is modulated rather than determined by sensory information (5-7).To study the influence of endogenous processes on visual perception, we examined whether preparatory signals related to the voluntary allocation of spatial attention are predictive of subjects' performance in a motion discrimination task. For correlational methods such as functional MRI (fMRI) and single unit recordings, the strongest and most direct link between brain activity and behavior is the trial-to-trial relation between neural signals and choice. The feasibility of this approach has been demonstrated repeatedly in single unit studies (8)(9)(10)(11)(12), where the neuronal response in areas sensitive to motion during a motion discrimination task correlates, on a trial-by-trial basis, with the animal's report. Importantly, this correlation persisted even when there was no net directional signal in the stimulus, suggesting that choice can depend on purely endogenous signals.However, it is largely unknown to what degree endogenous signals that precede stimulus analysis are predictive of performance. Single-unit studies in extra-striate visual areas have failed thus far to show that trial-by-trial variations in neural signals preceding the stimulus bear on performance accuracy (12). In higher-order parietal cortex, the magnitude of the neuronal response correlates on average with the locus of attention, but it is unknown whether it is predictive of performance on a trial-by-trial basis (13). Although several studie...