Tax progression is a major attribute of current tax systems and a major element of redistribution policy. Theoretically, there is no clear answer to the question of how progressive taxes should be. In practice, approaches have differed both over time and from country to country. While top rates of income taxes have declined since the 1980s and the number of tax brackets has decreased in many countries, the overall progressivity of public tax and transfer systems has not necessarily been on a downward trend. Furthermore, top rates have been raised again as part of a number of recent consolidation packages, which has been seen as a new tendency towards higher tax progression. Besides implications for structural unemployment and income distribution, the dynamic properties of tax progression is attracting renewed interest. Given stronger calls for countercyclical fiscal policy and the shortcomings of ad hoc fiscal interventions in practice, it might be asked what role tax progression can play in the game of "timely, targeted and temporary" automatic stabilization.In this paper, we discuss distributional aspects of tax progression only very briefly and in a highly stylized manner. Instead, we focus on two other issues: the structural and cyclical consequences of a progressive tax system when labor markets are imperfect. In such economies, tax progression may curb workers' wage claims and, thus, decrease structural unemployment. Furthermore, changes in average tax rates over the business cycle induced by tax progression may dampen net income fluctuations. By combining these two issues in a real business cycle model with labor market frictions and creditconstrained consumers, we are able to assess, in particular, the relative importance of the structural and cyclical impact of tax progression on welfare.We find that a more progressive tax schedule reduces structural unemployment as it decreases wages and, thus, fosters long-run incentives for job creation. However, since the costs of filling a vacancy increase when unemployment falls, there exists an optimal level of unemployment ("Hosios condition"). Therefore, tax progression improves steady-state welfare up to a certain threshold and harms it beyond that. We also show that tax progression always increases the costs of business cycles for consumers who can shift consumption intertemporally through saving and borrowing (optimizers), while it always reduces the business cycle costs for credit constrained households (rule-of-thumb consumers). The latter is due to less volatile net wages, while the former follows from progressivity-induced tax rate volatility and an income effect resulting from employment stabilization. Our analysis suggests that the business cycle effect dominates the steadystate effect. Overall, tax progression seems welfare-enhancing up to a certain threshold and always shifts relative utility from optimizers to rule-of-thumb consumers.
Nicht-technische Zusammenfassung
AbstractIn a real business cycle model with labor market frictions, we find that a...