Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics

Monnet, Éric; Velde, François R.

doi:10.21033/wp-2020-28

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…I look at aggregate time series but also at regional time series. The point here is not that the cross-section is a silver bullet to prove causality, much less a substitute for common sense (Monnet and Velde 2021); but if there is evidence in the cross-section that the disruption affected demand in 1919 or 1923, a sanity check is to look for such effects in 1918, in particular any state variables like balance sheets. Finally, to address the question of effectiveness and costs of NPIs, I estimate a standard epidemiological model augmented with an economic component, which allows me to dissociate the effect of the epidemic from that of interventions.…”

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confidence: 99%

What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

Velde¹

2022

J. Econ. Hist.

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An economic downturn coincided with the start of the epidemic but the recession was short and moderate, compared with that of 1920/21. Cross-sectional high-frequency data indicate that the epidemic affected the labor supply sharply but briefly with no ensuing spill-overs; most of the recession, brief as it was, was due to the end of the war. I analyze weekly city-level mortality data and economic indicators with time series methods and structural estimation of an economic-epidemiological model: interventions to hinder the contagion reduced mortality at little economic cost, probably because reduced infections mitigated the impact on the labor force.

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confidence: 99%

What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

Velde¹

2022

J. Econ. Hist.

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“…Hassan, 2016; Stock & Watson, 2019; see also Angrist & Krueger, 2001;B. D. Meyer, 1995;Monnet & Velde, 2020;Shadish et al, 2002). The experiment is natural or quasi-, as opposed to randomized or real, in the sense that the variation in treatment is not deliberately introduced or manipulated by a researcher (Fuchs-Schündeln & Hassan, 2016;B.…”

Section: An Overview Of Structural and Nonstructural Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and natural experiments (Monnet & Velde, 2020; see also Heckman, 2005Heckman, , 2008. 26 The monetarist methodology of measuring the effects of monetary policy consists of identifying historical exogenous variations in the money supply (or its growth rate) and linking those variations to changes in aggregate output (or its growth rate) through singleequation regressions.…”

Section: An Overview Of Structural and Nonstructural Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis

KAMKOUM

2023

SSRN Journal

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“…Monnet & Velde, 2020;Shadish et al, 2002). The experiment is natural or quasi-, as opposed to randomized or real, in the sense that the variation in treatment is not deliberately introduced or manipulated by a researcher(Fuchs-Schündeln & Hassan, 2016;B.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs

KAMKOUM¹

2023

Preprint

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The financial crisis that started in the U.S. at the end of 2007 and later spread to other countries was the most severe economic and financial disaster since the Great Depression. The crisis began in the U.S. housing market in August 2007, rapidly extended to other sectors of the U.S. economy, and became global following the collapse of various U.S.-based international financial institutions. To counter the negative effects of the crisis, the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States) and other central banks conducted monetary policies that are widely considered unconventional. This master’s thesis examines the monetary policies the Federal Reserve implemented in response to the crisis. More specifically, the thesis analyzes the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) programs, liquidity facilities, and forward guidance operations implemented from 2007 to 2018.The thesis’ detailed examination of these policies is concluded with an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis of the causal effects of the QE programs on U.S. inflation and real GDP. The results of this design-based natural experimental approach show that the QE operations positively affected U.S. real GDP but did not significantly impact U.S. inflation. Specifically, it is found that, for the 2011Q2-2018Q4 post-QE period, real GDP per capita in the U.S. increased by an average of 231 dollars per quarter relative to how it would have changed had the QE programs not been conducted. Moreover, the results show that, in 2018Q4, ten years after the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s QE programs, real GDP per capita in the U.S. increased by 14% relative to what it would have been during that quarter had there not been the QE programs.

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Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics

Cited by 4 publications

References 82 publications

What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data

The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs

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