Monitoring Emerging Trends in LLM Research

Abstract

Established methodologies for monitoring and forecasting trends in technological development fall short of capturing advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs). This chapter suggests a complementary and alternative approach to mitigate this concern. Traditional indicators, such as search volumes and citation frequencies, are demonstrated to inadequately reflect the rapid evolution of LLM-related technologies due to biases, semantic drifts, and inherent lags in data documentation. Our presented methodology analyzes the proximity of technological terms related to LLMs, leveraging the OpenAlex and arXiv databases, and focuses on extracting nouns from scientific papers to provide a nuanced portrayal of advancements in LLM technologies. The approach aims to counteract the inherent lags in data, accommodate semantic drift, and distinctly differentiate between various topics, offering both retrospective and prospective insights in their analytical purview. The insights derived underline the need for refined, robust, adaptable, and precise forecasting models as LLMs intersect with domains like cyber defense. At the same time, they are considering the limitations of singular ontologies and integrating advanced anticipatory measures for a nuanced understanding of evolving LLM technologies.