Objectives:To quantify the association between systemic levels of the chemokine regulated on activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted (RANTES/CCL5), interferon-␥-inducible protein-10 (IP-10/CXCL10), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1/CCL2), and eotaxin-1 (CCL11) with future coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke events and to assess their usefulness for CHD and ischemic stroke risk prediction in the PRIME Study.
Methods:After 10 years of follow-up of 9,771 men, 2 nested case-control studies were built including 621 first CHD events and 1,242 matched controls and 95 first ischemic stroke events and 190 matched controls. Standardized hazard ratios (HRs) for each log-transformed chemokine were estimated by conditional logistic regression.Results: None of the 4 chemokines were independent predictors of CHD, either with respect to stable angina or to acute coronary syndrome. Conversely, RANTES (HR ϭ 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.74), IP-10 (HR ϭ 1.53; 95% CI 1.06-2.20), and eotaxin-1 (HR ϭ 1.59; 95% CI 1.02-2.46), but not MCP-1 (HR ϭ 0.99; 95% CI 0.68-1.46), were associated with ischemic stroke independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, hs-CRP, and fibrinogen. When the first 3 chemokines were included in the same multivariate model, RANTES and IP-10 remained predictive of ischemic stroke. Their addition to a traditional risk factor model predicting ischemic stroke substantially improved the C-statistic from 0.6756 to 0.7425 (p ϭ 0.004).
Conclusions:In asymptomatic men, higher systemic levels of RANTES and IP-10 are independent predictors of ischemic stroke but not of CHD events. RANTES and IP-10 may improve the accuracy of ischemic stroke risk prediction over traditional risk factors. Neurology ® 2011;77:1165-1173 GLOSSARY CHD ϭ coronary heart disease; CI ϭ confidence interval; HDL ϭ high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HR ϭ hazard ratio; hs-CRP ϭ high sensitivity C-reactive protein; IP-10 ϭ interferon-␥-inducible protein-10; MCP-1 ϭ monocyte chemoattractant protein-1; NRI ϭ Net Reclassification Improvement; RANTES ϭ regulated on activation normal T-cell expressed and secreted.