Monsoonal Interactions Leading to Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes

Carr, Lester E.; Elsberry, Russell L.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<0265:miltst>2.0.co;2

Cited by 111 publications

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“…Yeh [3] proposed the energy dispersion theory of atmospheric long waves as early as the 1940s and advanced weather forecasting theory for the world's westerly belts. Our understanding of energy dispersion through both TC and subtropical vortices has grown continuously since the 1990s [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. For example, a TC-G-D wave train may be produced by the energy dispersion of an isolated circular vortex, and the line connecting the three member centers of the wave train is parallel to the x axis [7].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy dispersion of complex non-isolated vortices

Luo

2011

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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Energy dispersion is a fundamental scientific problem in the study of natural disasters such as typhoons, heavy rain and earthquakes. The problem has been addressed by both multi-discipline research and forecast studies. The dynamics of isolated circular vortex energy dispersion have been solved. However, the disastrous results of typhoons and heavy rain often occur due to non-isolated circular vortices, the dynamics of which are explored in this paper. The energy dispersion characteristics of non-isolated vortices with complex structural patterns are examined using a linearized nondivergent barotropical vorticity equation model. In the initial field, a tropical cyclone (TC) vortex and a meso-scale vortex coexist, forming a complex structural pattern. An analytic solution based on a Fourier transform and simulations using a two-dimensional model show the following. (1) A wave train of TC-G-D may be created by the energy dispersion where the line connecting the three member centers of the wave train is parallel to the x axis in the case of an initial TC vortex without a meso-scale vortex. (2) A wave train of TC-G-D may also be created by energy dispersion. However, the line connecting the three member centers of the wave train would no longer be parallel to the x axis. Instead, they would form a triangle in the presence of the initial TC vortex with the meso-scale vortex. (3) There is a nonlinear relationship between the initial intensity of the meso-scale vortex and the base angle of the triangle. These results have the potential to be applied in the field of typhoon forecasting. Multi-disciplinary research into energy dispersion resulting from extreme natural phenomena such as typhoons [1], and heavy rain [2] has long been of interest for weather forecasting and other reasons. For example, Yeh [3] found an analytical solution for one-dimensional perturbation wind velocity v(x, t) and framed energy dispersion theory for atmospheric long waves. This theory explains the lower reach effects of long wavelength perturbations in the westerly belt and has been applied to the practice of weather forecasting for more than fifty years [4]. Tropical cyclones (TC), subtropical vortices and mesoscale vortices in the Mei-yu front are two-dimensional (2D) perturbations [5] that differ from long wavelength perturbations. Chan et al. [6] found an analytical solution for the 2D perturbation streamfunction ψ (x, y, t). Luo [7] further found analytically that a synoptic-scale wave train with alternating anti-cyclonic and cyclonic vorticity disturbances, named the TC-G-D wave train, could be created by TC energy dispersion. The analytical result has been confirmed numerically [7]. The characteristics of the TC-G-D wave train can be simulated by both idealized and complex models [8]. The characteristics were also observed in the TCM-90 Field Experiment [9]. Later, the TC-G-D wave train and the relationship between the wave train and TC genesis were found using satellite sounding data [10][11][12][13]. This relationship is particularl...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The analytical result has been confirmed numerically [7]. The characteristics of the TC-G-D wave train can be simulated by both idealized and complex models [8]. The characteristics were also observed in the TCM-90 Field Experiment [9].…”

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confidence: 81%

Energy dispersion of complex non-isolated vortices

Luo

2011

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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“…1d). Carr and Elsberry (1995) showed that as a mature TC propagates due to the beta drift, Rossby wave dispersion (RWD) FIG. 1.…”

Section: Synoptic Overview Of the Pre-mekkhala Disturbancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…3c), the pre-Mekkhala disturbance was somewhat enhanced at low levels, which is noteworthy as this cyclonic vorticity spinup was occurring 158 longitude to the southeast of the center of the large Typhoon Hagupit as it was making landfall. Carr and Elsberry (1995) documented other cases of RWD when landfall caused rapid decay of a typhoon. Strong convective cells with heavy precipitation (rain rate $ 8 mm h 21 ) based on the TRMM 3B42 (Figs.…”

Section: A Evolution Of Low-level Circulation Related To Mekkhala Fomentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclone Mekkhala’s (2008) Formation over the South China Sea: Mesoscale, Synoptic-Scale, and Large-Scale Contributions

Park

Kim

et al. 2015

Monthly Weather Review

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Tropical cyclone formation close to the coastline of the Asian continent presents a significant threat to heavily populated coastal countries. A case study of Tropical Storm Mekkhala (2008) that developed off the coast of Vietnam is presented using the high-resolution analyses of the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts/Year of Tropical Convection and multiple satellite observations. The authors have analyzed contributions to the formation from large-scale intraseasonal variability, synoptic perturbations, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Within a large-scale westerly wind burst (WWB) associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), synoptic perturbations generated by two preceding tropical cyclones initiated the pre-Mekkhala low-level vortex over the Philippine Sea. Typhoon Hagupit produced a synoptic-scale wave train that contributed to the development of Jangmi, but likely suppressed the Mekkhala formation. The low-level vortex of the pre-Mekkhala disturbance was then initiated in a confluent zone between northeasterlies in advance of Typhoon Jangmi and the WWB. A key contribution to the development of Mekkhala was from diurnally varying MCSs that were invigorated in the WWB. The oceanic MCSs, which typically develop off the west coast of the Philippines in the morning and dissipate in the afternoon, were prolonged beyond the regular diurnal cycle. A combination with the MCSs developing downstream of the Philippines led to the critical structure change of the oceanic convective cluster, which implies the critical role of mesoscale processes. Therefore, the diurnally varying mesoscale convective processes over both the ocean and land are shown to have an essential role in the formation of Mekkhala in conjunction with large-scale MJO and the synoptic-scale TC influences.

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“…dynamics nature (e.g. Frank, 1982;Flier, 1984;Carr and Elsberry, 1995;Holland, 1995), even though recent studies suggested that upper tropospheric processes also play a role (e.g. Ge et al, 2007Ge et al, , 2008.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursor synoptic‐scale disturbances associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the South China Sea during 2000–2011

Yuan

Wang

2014

Int. J. Climatol

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Precursor synoptic disturbance characteristics associated with 35 tropical cyclone (TC) genesis events in the South China Sea (SCS) during 2000-2011 were examined. All genesis events occurred between May and December. Six types of precursor synoptic disturbances are identified, and their low-level composite patterns are constructed. They are synoptic-scale wave train (29%), TC energy dispersion (14%), Pacific easterly wave (9%), Borneo vortex (11%), TC southwesterly shear induced vortex (23%), and others (14%). In 13 (22) of 35 genesis cases, precursor perturbations originated within (outside of) the SCS.The satellite IR image data are used to analyse mesoscale convective activity prior to TC genesis. It is found that mesoscale convective systems were observed at 83% of the genesis cases, whereas 54% of the genesis cases experienced multiple mesoscale convective system development at a single time.Most of synoptic disturbances associated with the tropical cyclogenesis occurred in the region where atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) modes are in an active phase. The synoptic disturbances-associated TC genesis events in the SCS are strongly modulated by atmospheric low-frequency oscillations (especially the MJO). Meanwhile, favourable precursor sea surface temperature signals are observed, primarily on the 10-to 20-day and 20-to 90-day timescales.

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Monsoonal Interactions Leading to Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes

Cited by 111 publications

References 0 publications

Energy dispersion of complex non-isolated vortices

Energy dispersion of complex non-isolated vortices

Tropical Cyclone Mekkhala’s (2008) Formation over the South China Sea: Mesoscale, Synoptic-Scale, and Large-Scale Contributions

Precursor synoptic‐scale disturbances associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the South China Sea during 2000–2011

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