Monte Carlo Analysis-Based CapEx Uncertainty Estimation of New Technologies: The Case of Photochemical Lamps

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold: it presents recent innovation activities related to the implementation of LEDbased photochemical reaction technology at kilolab (20 L) and production (1000 L) scales at Syngenta Crop Protection AG in Munchwilen, Switzerland, and investigates the capital expenditure (CapEx) uncertainty estimation of photochemical lamps using Monte Carlo analysis. It was found that for the reaction system considered in this paper, depending on the photon rate measurement methodactinometry or radiometrythe CapEx uncertainty is expected to be within 15−30% at two standard deviations.

A generalized analytical energy balance model for evaluating agglomeration from a binary collision of wet particles

“…We adopted Monte Carlo sampling as the uncertainty propagation method. According to this method, a large number of sample points are randomly selected from the distribution of uncertain parameters and fed into a primary model to propagate uncertainty and, hence, quantify output variability, which is typically represented as a probability density function [ [64] , [65] , [66] ]. In the present study, we employed the generalized agglomeration model as the primary model, with being the output variable, and considered normal distributions in the uncertain parameters.…”

Development and Scale-Up of a Novel Photochemical C–N Oxidative Coupling

“…This directed us to discrete light sources in the form of immersed lamps on scale. These requirements, together with tight project timelines, led us to opt for a batch reactor with two immersion-well-type lamps . Such a system also allows a direct comparison with the lab- and bench-scale generated data to gather knowledge on the influence of both mixing efficiency and lamp surface-to-volume ratio.…”

“…A range of reactor configurations and developments have offered scale-enabling solutions in this vain, ranging from traditional plug-flow reactors through to continuous vortex reactors, which have proved successful in scaling processes up to the multi-100 g h –1 range . A number of photochemical transformations have been reported on a manufacturing scale, but the relative difficulty of development, particularly in terms of scale-up, in comparison to traditional transformations remains a barrier. While scaling out or numbering up can be implemented in the context of some lower manufacturing volumes and/or high-margin products, such approaches are not broadly applicable or sufficient.…”

Shining a Light on the Advances, Challenges and Realisation of Utilising Photoredox Catalysis in Pharmaceutical Development

“…Given that solvent choice greatly affects the photophysical properties of PRCs, [50] balancing conditions that give high yield and purity of the desired product with suitability for use in a manufacturing environment may ultimately result in a scaled‐up reaction outcome that demonstrates less benefit than on a small scale. As more data is collected in this sector regarding process monitoring (photon flux, quantum yields, productivity), energy saving, and maintenance issues, certainty in capital and operating expenses should increase [61] . Collaboration between the pharmaceutical industry and academia is also of vital importance for effective transfer of knowledge and understanding of the key challenges [62] .…”

“…As more data is collected in this sector regarding process monitoring (photon flux, quantum yields, productivity), energy saving, and maintenance issues, certainty in capital and operating expenses should increase. [61] Collaboration between the pharmaceutical industry and academia is also of vital importance for effective transfer of knowledge and understanding of the key challenges. [62] As this field continues to develop the pharmaceutical community will be able to make strategic decisions around use of photoredox catalysis on scale, and the true potential of this technology for API development and manufacture should come to light.…”