Monte Carlo simulation approach to life cycle cost management

Wang, Nannan; Chang, Yen‐Chiang; El-Sheikh, Ahmed A.

doi:10.1080/15732479.2010.481304

Cited by 64 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…A review of the literature shows that various papers have studied energy consumption, energy savings, and CO 2 emissions that directly affect the thermal comfort of the life alert cost (LAC) through the optimization of the building retrofitting. Based on the LCC, the main building cost components include construction, maintenance, performance, replacement, cleaning, energy, renovation, tax, and disposal [27,28,29]. While different studies address the building retrofitting optimization with different objectives, the selection process of specific objectives is not clear so far.…”

Section: Practical Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cost function of utilizing and replacing installations A NZEB useful lifespan depends largely on customer expectations and such features as its architecture, geography, and performance. Since time periods are usually 25-50 years [27], a useful lifespan (c) has been considered in the proposed model, and since the interest rate is a key factor depending on the currency depreciation or inflation, it may be constant in a period of time or may vary over the building's useful lifespan; if the interest rate is 2-3% above the inflation rate, it is considered as a value [30]. The useful life of the equipment used in a building is usually 10-25 years [28]; therefore, the inflation rate (a) has been taken to be different for each scenario to approximate the model closer to reality.…”

Section: Cost Function Of Building Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A sustainable mathematical model for design of net zero energy buildings

Delavar¹,

Sahebi

2020

Heliyon

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Energy is vital recourse for economic development of today's business. The services demanded of residential and commercial buildings require substantial energy use. Energy consumption in this sector has been growing in total, gradually. As a result the high emission of greenhouse gases is released and, hence, the saving energy with better building management have made a major priority of the energy and environment sectors throughout the world. In this direction, to reduce energy consumption and mitigate environmental impacts in buildings, net-zero energy buildings (NZEB) is a very effective solution. As a result, a multi-objective model is developed to identify the best combination of materials and construction options considering their related costs, energy efficiency, and environmental impacts of buildings, simultaneously. This sustainable model is presented to construct a building considering the construction costs and energy consumption of the design options. To design the NZEB, while minimizing costs and carbon emissions, use has been made of a combination of different types of active/heating and cooling systems and renewable equipment through such high-efficiency, effective, and updated technologies as the solar panel. Finally, the case study of a residential building with two scenarios is used to demonstrate the proposed framework. The results show that, for scenarios1 and 2 respectively using insulation thickness such as (wall, roof, and windows) and renewable equipment have the highest sustainable impact in NEBZ's performance.

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Section: Practical Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cost Function Of Building Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A sustainable mathematical model for design of net zero energy buildings

Delavar¹,

Sahebi

2020

Heliyon

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Therefore, periodic and continuous management is required to maintain the functionality and usability of the building. Moreover, an appropriate budget is required for proper planned maintenance, and the development of such a budget requires an in-depth analysis of maintenance costs [22].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Maintenance Cost Analysis for Aged Multi-Family Housing

et al. 2019

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To realize sustainable construction, planning for future maintenance costs is essential. In the case of multi-family housing, various maintenance issues can be expected to appear starting 10 years after completion. Therefore, preventive maintenance must be implemented in a systematic manner to cope with the problems caused by the natural aging of multi-family dwellings and to maintain a sustainable level of quality for the properties. In this study, maintenance costs were investigated for 224 multi-family housing units aged 20 years or older in Seoul, South Korea. Using Monte Carlo simulation in conjunction with expert interviews, a probabilistic maintenance cost analysis was conducted to analyze and estimate the variability in maintenance costs. The findings of the study propose that the use of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis can be developed into a useful planning tool for determining reasonable future maintenance costs in sustainable construction.

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“…Risks should be considered and quantified and when deciding the appropriate length of a concession period (Bing, Akintoye, Edwards, & Hardcastle, 2005). Monte Carlo simulations have been used in calculating the concession period (Ng et al, 2007a;Shen & Wu, 2005;Zhang & AbouRizk, 2006), where the focus of the simulations is to establish the distribution function of uncertain variables (Liou & Huang, 2008;Wang, Chang, & El-Sheikh, 2012). Considering the relative risks and uncertainties, this study proposes a decision model to determine a proper concession period using Monte Carlo simulation.…”

Section: Risks and Uncertainties Affecting Decision Makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concession Model for Fair Distribution of Benefits and Risks in Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects

Xue

Chong

Zhou

et al. 2019

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

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A fair distribution of benefits and risks is not only one of the key factors in deciding concession period but also an important prerequisite for good cooperation between the government and the private sector in a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road project. Considering the psychological characteristic of decision makers’ fairness preference, this study innovatively introduces the inequity aversion theory into the concession model, which provides a novel perspective to investigate the distribution of benefits and risks. In the improved model, the decision makers’ investment utility involves their economic benefits as well as their disutility due to inequity. Furthermore, the equilibrium principle of benefits and risks in this model has changed to minimize the gap between the investment utility-risk ratios of the government and the private sector. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, this study verifies the application of the model to a BOT road project in China. The results show that the concession period with fairness preference can effectively narrow the gap between the investment utility-risk ratios of the government and the private sector, thus guaranteeing the fair distribution of benefits and risks in the BOT road project.

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Monte Carlo simulation approach to life cycle cost management

Cited by 64 publications

References 12 publications

A sustainable mathematical model for design of net zero energy buildings

A sustainable mathematical model for design of net zero energy buildings

Probabilistic Maintenance Cost Analysis for Aged Multi-Family Housing

Concession Model for Fair Distribution of Benefits and Risks in Build-Operate-Transfer Road Projects

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