Monte Carlo simulation of climate-weather change process at maritime ferry operating area

Abstract

The paper presents a computer simulation technique applied to generating the climate-weather change process at Baltic Sea restricted waters and its characteristics evaluation. The Monte Carlo method is used under the assumption of semi-Markov model of this process. A procedure and an algorithm of climate-weather change process’ realizations generating and its characteristics evaluation are proposed to be applied in C# program preparation. Using this program, the climate-weather change process’ characteristics are predicted for the maritime ferry operating area. Namely, the mean values and standard deviations of the unconditional sojourn times, the limit values of transient probabilities and the mean values of total sojourn times for the fixed time at the climate-weather states are determined.

Modelling Consequences of Maritime Critical Infrastructure Accidents

“… 23 at the particular states of the process of environment degradation, for the particular sub-areas Dk, k = 1,2,…,5. Namely, applying (14), we obtained the following results (the limit transient probabilities that are not equal to 0 are presented only):  23 that amount (in PLN):…”

“…To analyse the climate-weather impact on the losses, we suppose that there are w = 6 climate-weather states cb, b = 1,2,…,6 dependent on the wave height and the wind speed, distinguished for the ship operating area at the Baltic Sea open waters [6], [14]. According to the information coming from experts, the coefficients…”

“…This process characteristic is the vector [qb]1xw of limit values of transient probabilities qb(t)= P(C(t) = cb), t ∈ <0,+∞), b = 1,2,…,w of the process C(t) at the particular climate-weather states cb. There are w = 6 climate-weather states cb, b = 1,2,…,w, dependent on the wave height and the wind speed, distinguished for the ship operating area at the Baltic Sea open waters [14]. The environmental losses, impacted by the process C(t) [12], in the considered sub-area Dk, are defined by [5] )…”

“…, b = 1,2,…,6 and are understood as losses without considering climateweather impact determined by (15) and coefficient, given by (14) in [5], expresses the climate-weather change process impact on these losses.…”

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

“…The data were obtained from the IMWM-NRI under a copyright provision such that they can be presented in a processed form, not the exact original. Following the uniformity testing, the data collected from the four points (as depicted in Figure 4) were combined and subjected to analysis using methods outlined in [40][41][42][57][58][59][60][61]. Based on this consolidated dataset, the unknown fundamental parameters of the semi-Markov model of the process at the selected water area were assessed and evaluated.…”