Direct
air capture (DAC) shows exceptional promise for carbon dioxide
removal on the scale required to fulfill the Paris Agreement. Even
though planetary limitations do not constrain the scale of DAC, the
currently high cost puts its feasibility in question. By observing
cost reduction pathways of similar technologies, this paper explores
the cost reduction opportunities that result from learning-by-doing.
We developed an analytical buy-down model to investigate what it would
take to lower the cost of DAC to $100/ton CO2. Our goal
is not to accurately predict future costs, but our analysis demonstrates
that if DAC follows a path similar to that of comparable, successful
technologies, a capital investment of several hundred million dollars
could buy down the cost of DAC. This buy-down effort at a relatively
low cost will quantify the learning potential of DAC and show whether
its costs can be reduced (like solar photovoltaic modules) or whether
despite the investment it remains expensive (like nuclear power generation).