More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

doi:10.1038/nclimate3377

Cited by 105 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In the sub‐Antarctic regions, the predicted changes in echinoid assemblages in South America, on the Campbell and Kerguelen plateaus are consistent with recent studies (Griffiths et al, ; Guillaumot et al, ). High extinction rates predicted for the Crozet islands, Kerguelen Plateau, and South Georgia could be related to a southward migration of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and particularly of the sub‐Antarctic and Polar fronts (Allan et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

Fabri‐Ruiz

Danis

Navarro

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well‐delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so‐called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two‐step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub‐Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

Fabri‐Ruiz

Danis

Navarro

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…Seafloor communities represent the richest component of Antarctic biodiversity (Griffiths, 2010), are highly endemic (Griffiths et al, 2009), and play an important role in the marine ecosystem (Thurber et al, 2014). However, despite evidence that a changing environment influences the distribution of these communities (Gutt et al, 2011(Gutt et al, , 2013Fillinger et al, 2013;Griffiths et al, 2017), no study has so far quantified and mapped how their distribution might change due to a changing icescape at the ocean surface. One of the reasons for the lack of quantitative studies is that although surface-derived food is one of the main drivers, it is only recently that the nature and strength of this relationship has been quantified on the Antarctic shelf using a so-called Food-Availability-Model (FAM) .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Antarctic Suspension Feeder Abundances and Seafloor Food-Availability, and Modeling Their Change After a Major Glacier Calving

et al. 2018

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Seafloor communities are a critical part of the unique and diverse Antarctic marine life. Processes at the ocean-surface can strongly influence the diversity and abundance of these communities, even when they live at hundreds of meters water depth. However, even though we understand the importance of this link, there are so far no quantitative spatial predictions on how seafloor communities will respond to changing conditions at the ocean surface. Here, we map patterns in abundance of important habitat-forming suspension feeders on the seafloor in East Antarctica, and predict how these patterns change after a major disturbance in the icescape, caused by the calving of the Mertz Glacier Tongue. We use a purpose-built ocean model for the time-period before and after the calving of the Mertz-Glacier Tongue in 2010, data from satellites and a validated food-availability model to estimate changes in horizontal flux of food since the glacier calving. We then predict the post-calving distribution of suspension feeder abundances using the established relationships with the environmental variables, and changes in horizontal flux of food. Our resulting maps indicate strong increases in suspension feeder abundances close to the glacier calving site, fueled by increased food supply, while the remainder of the region maintains similar suspension feeder abundances despite a slight decrease in total food supply. The oceanographic setting of the entire region changes, with a shorter ice-free season, altered seafloor currents and changes in food-availability. Our study provides important insight into the flow-on effects of a changing icescape on seafloor habitat and fauna in polar environments. Understanding these connections is important in the context of current and future effects of climate change, and the mapped predictions of the seafloor fauna as presented for the study region can be used as a decision-tool for planning potential marine protected areas, and for focusing future sampling and monitoring initiatives.

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“…, Griffiths et al. ). The predicted decrease in sea‐ice cover and an increase in melting will likely lead to higher primary production in certain areas, fueling growth of fauna on the seabed (Barnes ) and increasing sedimentation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, increases in temperature to above 0°C could lead to shifts from species communities tolerant to freezing temperatures to more generalist types of species communities (Griffiths et al. ). Because SAMs aggregate the distributions of single species, they can be used to validate additional functional aspects of community structure that form part of a network model, depending on how much is known about the individual species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment of the spatial distribution and structural dynamics of deep benthic marine communities

Jansen

Dunstan

Hill

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Characterizing the spatial distribution and variation of species communities and validating these characteristics with data from the field are key elements for an ecosystem‐based approach to management. However, models of species distributions that yield community structure are usually not linked to models of community dynamics, constraining understanding and management of the ecosystem, particularly in data‐poor regions. Here we use a qualitative network model to predict changes in Antarctic benthic community structure between major marine habitats characterized largely by seafloor depth and slope, and use multivariate mixture models of species distributions to validate the community dynamics. We then assess how future increases in primary production associated with anticipated loss of sea‐ice may affect the ecosystem. Our study shows how both spatial and structural features of ecosystems in data‐poor regions can be analyzed and possible futures assessed, with direct relevance for ecosystem‐based management.

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More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

Cited by 105 publications

References 38 publications

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

Mapping Antarctic Suspension Feeder Abundances and Seafloor Food-Availability, and Modeling Their Change After a Major Glacier Calving

Integrated assessment of the spatial distribution and structural dynamics of deep benthic marine communities

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