“More Posture Than Review”

Abstract

By deemphasizing the role of nuclear weapons in US security policy, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) could lead India to slow or halt the growth of its nuclear weapons capabilities and to adopt a less assertive nuclear doctrine; however, the NPR is unlikely to have this effect on India's nuclear program. This is the case for two reasons. First, Indian leaders do not seek to emulate US nuclear behavior; they formulate policy based primarily on their assessment of the security threats facing India. Second, Indians do not think that the NPR augurs major changes in US nuclear policy. Thus, it will not alter the international strategic environment sufficiently to enable India to relax its nuclear posture. In fact, Indian strategists believe that the new US policy fails even to match India's current degree of nuclear restraint. Therefore, according to Indian experts, the NPR will have little impact on India.Of the five main goals of the Obama administration's 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), preventing nuclear proliferation and terrorism pertains most directly to India. The NPR's other goals focus primarily on US concerns regarding its own nuclear arsenal and ability to deter threats to its security and to that of its allies. 1 Even preventing proliferation and terrorism has only limited relevance in the Indian context. India already possesses nuclear weapons; thus, there is nothing that the NPR can do to reduce the likelihood that India will acquire them. 2 Furthermore, India has never spread nuclear weapons, materials, or technologies to third parties and is not likely to change course and share them with terrorists at any point in the future. Nonetheless, by deemphasizing the role of nuclear weapons in US security policy, through such specific measures as highlighting reductions in the size of the US nuclear arsenal and moving the United States further toward a nofirst-use (NFU) posture, the NPR could have beneficial effects. For example, it could help to slow or halt the growth of India's existing nuclear capabilities and encourage India to avoid destabilizing nuclear doctrines. As I explain below, however, the NPR is unlikely to have such an impact on India's nuclear program.

The Effects on South Asia of Deep Us Nuclear Reductions

“…Thus, in the Indian view, regardless of potential cuts, the United States is actually not in a position to advance normative arguments about the need for nuclear reductions. 30 Pakistan, as noted above, views nuclear weapons as necessary to ensure its survival against a growing Indian conventional threat; Pakistan simply cannot match Indian economic growth and conventional defense spending, and relies on an increasingly robust nuclear weapon capability to protect itself in light of these developments. It has not pursued nuclear weapons in order to make a political point or to fulfill social aspirations, and it is more interested in survival than in global norms.…”

Miscalculated Ambiguity: The Effects of US Nuclear Declaratory Policy on Deterrence and Nonproliferation

“…The summit climaxed with the 19 nations joining current international conventions, pledging resources to nonproliferation efforts, or promising to return/remove special nuclear materials under the supervision of the IAEA. 70 Although the Nuclear Security Summit primarily focused on the security of nuclear materials, it also provided a global forum to display the new US nuclear policy. The 2010 NPR, a prime national security document from which other plans and operations flow, outlined a new strategy that reduces US dependence on nuclear weapons, focuses on strengthening the NPT, and maintaining a strong deterrent.…”

“…http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/key-facts-about-national-securitysummit (accessed February 27, 2011). 70 "Highlights of the National Commitments made at the Nuclear Security Summit | The White House." The White House.…”

“…Declaratory policy will never be able to adequately cover every conceivable scenario. Sometimes it must be expressed in the midst of 70 Gilpin, Robert. War and Change in World Politics.…”

“…Many competitors see robust nuclear investments as hypocritical, and perceive these actions to be a blatant attempt to perpetuate an unequal world of nuclear hegemony. 70 A complex mixture of fear, honor, and interest has driven Iran's dogged nuclear determination. However, fear of rivals has traditionally served as the proximate cause for its relentless and unswerving pursuit of nuclear weapons.…”