More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields

Tack, Jesse; Harri, Ardian; Coble, Keith H.

doi:10.1093/ajae/aas071

Cited by 80 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…This study included wheat varieties as separate variables, providing an accurate and up‐to‐date estimate of the relative yield of each variety and holding constant location, weather, and disease. This approach provides initial estimates of how to construct a portfolio of wheat varieties to mitigate risk, which was shown to be important in mitigating the effects of climate change by Collier et al (2009), Tack et al (2012), and Tack (2013a, 2013b), and extends previous wheat portfolio research of Barkley et al (2010) and Nalley and Barkley (2010) and the rice portfolio work of Nalley et al (2009b). Model results for wheat varieties provide wheat breeders initial information about breeding for heat tolerance (Pradhan et al, 2012).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985 to 2011

et al. 2014

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Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in Kansas have increased due to wheat breeding and improved agronomic practices, but are subject to climate and disease challenges. e objective of this research is to quantify the impact of weather, disease, and genetic improvement on wheat yields of varieties grown in 11 locations in Kansas from 1985 to 2011. Wheat variety yield data from Kansas performance tests were matched with comprehensive location-speci c disease and weather data, including seasonal precipitation, monthly air temperature, air temperature and solar radiation around anthesis, and vapor pressure de cit (VPD). e results show that wheat breeding programs increased yield by 34 kg ha -1 yr -1 . From 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding increased average wheat yields by 917 kg ha -1 , or 27% of total yield. Weather was found to have a large impact on wheat yields. Simulations demonstrated that a 1°C increase in projected mean temperature was associated with a decrease in wheat yields of 715 kg ha -1 , or 21%. Weather, diseases, and genetics all had signi cant impacts on wheat yields in 11 locations in Kansas during 1985 to 2011.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 81%

Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985 to 2011

et al. 2014

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“…Future research with access to larger data sets on hybrid and conventional cultivars might benefit from studying the relationship between cultivar and higher order moments (skew, kurtosis, etc.) following the approach of Tack et al (2012).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Analysis of Hybrid Rice Performance in Arkansas

Lyman¹,

Nalley²

2013

Agronomy Journal

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Despite the rapid producer adoption of hybrid rice (Oryza sativa L.) in recent years, the economic advantage of hybrid rice in the mid‐southern United States remains disputed. This study compared the economic risk and return of three popularly sown hybrid rice cultivars: XL723, Clearfield (CL) XL729, and CL XL745; and eight conventional rice cultivars: Cheniere, CL 142‐AR, CL 151, Francis, Roy J, Taggart, Templeton, and Wells, using University of Arkansas experimental test plot data from 2006 to 2010. Paddy and milling yield data on each cultivar were used to estimate a Just–Pope production function, allowing comparison of mean yields and mean yield variances across cultivars. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to compare net returns and net return variance (risk) across hybrid and conventional cultivars. Just–Pope estimation results indicated that hybrid cultivars exhibited mean paddy yield premiums of 1.6 to 2.4 Mg ha–1 relative to the best‐performing conventional cultivar (Francis); furthermore, the hybrid yield advantage was not associated with increased yield risk. Among hybrid‐CL and conventional‐CL cultivars, hybrid milling quality was not statistically different. Among non‐CL cultivars, the hybrid XL723 exhibited a mean head rice yield premium relative to conventional alternatives. Monte Carlo simulation results suggested that the net revenue advantage of hybrid cultivars makes them preferable to conventional alternatives in the CL and non‐CL categories across the entire range of producer risk preferences considered in this study.

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“…Thus, we included all three sources of variation as fixed effects in the regression model (soil type, cultivar, location). Combining fixed effects with weather outcomes is the preferred econometric approach in the yield modeling literature focusing on climate-yield relationships (Schlenker & Roberts, 2009;Schlenker & Lobell, 2010;Tack et al, 2012;Urban et al, 2012;Schlenker et al, 2013;Lobell et al, 2014). The omission of these controls could impact the estimated effect of EC due to omitted variable bias.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

High vapor pressure deficit drives salt‐stress‐induced rice yield losses in India

Tack

Singh

Nalley

et al. 2015

Global Change Biology

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Flooded rice is grown across wide geographic boundaries from as far north as Manchuria and as far south as Uruguay and New South Wales, primarily because of its adaptability across diverse agronomic and climatic conditions. Salt-stress damage, a common occurrence in delta and coastal rice production zones, could be heightened by the interactions between high temperature and relative humidity (vapor pressure deficit--VPD). Using temporal and spatial observations spanning 107 seasons and 19 rice-growing locations throughout India with varying electrical conductivity (EC), including coastal saline, inland saline, and alkaline soils, we quantified the proportion of VPD inducing salinity damage in rice. While controlling for time-invariant factors such as trial locations, rice cultivars, and soil types, our regression analysis indicates that EC has a nonlinear detrimental effect on paddy rice yield. Our estimates suggest these yield reductions become larger at higher VPD. A one standard deviation (SD) increase in EC from its mean value is associated with 1.68% and 4.13% yield reductions at median and maximum observed VPD levels, respectively. Yield reductions increase roughly sixfold when the one SD increase is taken from the 75th percentile of EC. In combination, high EC and VPD generate near catastrophic crop loss as predicted yield approaches zero. If higher VPD levels driven by global warming materialize in conjunction with rising sea levels or salinity incursion in groundwater, this interaction becomes an important and necessary predictor of expected yield losses and global food security.

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More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields

Cited by 80 publications

References 67 publications

Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985 to 2011

Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985 to 2011

Economic Analysis of Hybrid Rice Performance in Arkansas

High vapor pressure deficit drives salt‐stress‐induced rice yield losses in India

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