Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Abstract

Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.

The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries

“…Particularly, Hanewald () concludes that the mortality index of the Lee‐Carter model, , and GDP levels are significantly correlated and that the mortality of various age groups display signs of cointegration with GDP. Based on these results, Niu and Melenberg () propose a new model that includes a real GDP factor (see also, Seklecka et al, ).…”

“…By considering the empirical analysis of the previous sections and the models developed by Seklecka et al (); Seklecka et al () on the Ofor2607Hare and Li ()for2607s foundations, we propose a model for the central mortality rate, , that captures temperature and economic factors by including simultaneously factors and in Equation : where is the central mortality rate, calculated as the ratio between the number of people aged who died in a year , , and the exposure to death for age in year , $$…”

“…Evidence of a significant relationship between economic changes and trends in mortality for many developed as well as developing countries has been presented by many researchers (e.g., Ruhm, 2000;Preston, 2007;Tapia Granados, 2008;2012;French & O'Hare, 2014;Niu & Melenberg, 2014;Rolden, van Bodegom, van den Hout, & Westendorp, 2014;Seklecka, Md Lazam, Pantelous, & O'Hare, 2019). In those studies, several macro-economic determinants are used such as the unemployment rates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or national income per capita as exogenous determinants to capture the economic changes in their models.…”

“…2017);Seklecka et al (2019) on the O'Hare and Li (2012)'s foundations, we propose a model for the central mortality rate, m x,t , that captures temperature and economic factors by including simultaneously factors ct x and cg x in Equation (1): ln…”

Longevity risk and economic growth in sub-populations: evidence from Italy

“…The related literature is quite extensive, especially on gross domestic product (used as a proxy for the economic growth). The relationship between mortality and gross domestic product has been investigated in several empirical studies, among them, the most recent are Hanewald (2011), Niu and Melenberg (2014), Boonen and Li (2017) and Seklecka et al (2019). From the beginning of the twentieth century, many authors have observed that mortality rates tend to fluctuate with economic cycles and the literature was divided between those who argue that the relationship between mortality and economic cycles is pro-cyclical [e.g., (Tapia Granados 2008;Tapia Granados and Ionides 2011;Ruhm 2005)] and those who argues that mortality increases in times of economic instability [e.g., (Brenner 1983) and (Brenner 2005)].…”