Mortality evolution in Algeria: What can we learn about data quality?

Abstract

Mortality in Algeria has declined significantly since the country declared its independence in 1962. This trend has been accompanied by improvements in data quality and changes in estimation methodology, both of which are scarcely documented, and may distort the natural evolution of mortality as reported in official statistics. In this paper, our aim is to detect these methodological and data quality changes by means of the visual inspection of mortality surfaces, which represent the evolution of mortality rates, mortality improvement rates and the male-female mortality ratio over age and time. Data quality problems are clearly visible during the 1977–1982 period. The quality of mortality data has improved after 1983, and even further since the population census of 1998, which coincided with the end of the civil war. Additional inexplicable patterns have also been detected, such as a changing mortality age pattern during the period before 1983, and a changing pattern of excess female mortality at reproductive ages, which suddenly appears in 1983 and disappears in 1992.

The limits of parametric reforms in sustaining the Algerian retirement system in a context of population ageing

“…During the last several decades in Algeria, population ageing has not been a major preoccupation. From the 1970s to the mid‐2010s, the ratio of the working‐age population to the population of retirement age varied at a level higher than 7 (Flici and Kouaouci, 2021). With a relatively young and stable population, the sustainability of the Algerian retirement system in these recent decades was threatened more by issues related to system maturity.…”

“…Starting in 2022, the ratio of the working-age population to the population of retirement age fell for the first time below the value of 6. It is expected to reach a value of 3.45 by 2040 (ONS, 2019) and continue its decrease and stagnate around 2.7 from 2051 onwards (Flici, 2020). The negative effect of this projected transformation of the population age structure on the balance of contributors to retirees and, consequently, on the financial sustainability of the Algerian retirement system is clear.…”

“…For this study, we use the multi-scenario population projections of Flici (2020), which are extended to 2070. The official projections of Algeria, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), are based on a single scenario, and extended to 2040.…”