Mortality forecasting using a modified CMI Mortality Projections Model for China II: cities, towns and counties

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct the study of long-term age-sex-specific mortality forecasting for subpopulations in different areas of China: cities, towns and counties. We use a modified CMI (Continuous Mortality Investigation) Mortality Projections Model, which has been discussed in Huang & Browne (Paper I), for modelling purposes. From the historical experience, we find that people in cities have lower mortality rates and higher mortality improvement rates than people in towns and counties for most ages. If this trend continues, the mortality of different areas will diverge further in the future. From the projection results, we find that there will be significant mortality and life expectancy differences between cities, towns and counties for both males and females. Sensitivity analysis for long-term rates of mortality improvement and the speed of convergence from “initial” to “long-term” rates of mortality improvement are conducted. Uncertainties are attached to the central estimates to overcome the limitation of the original CMI approach from which only deterministic results can be obtained.

Healthy Life Expectancy in China: Modeling and Implications for Public and Private Insurance

“…Most earlier studies rely on the Sullivan method to compute HLE, which requires detailed information on age-specific morbidity that are often not publicly available at the province level. In this paper, we develop a new approach to estimating regional HLE at birth and apply the model to China, where longevity and health have substantially improved in recent decades, but health inequalities across provinces are still large (Hanewald et al, 2019;Huang, 2017). We propose a multiple regression model for HLE that does not rely on age-specific morbidity data, but rather on longevity and socio-economic variables that are widely available.…”

Bayesian Hierarchical Multi-Population Mortality Modelling for China’s Provinces

“…Zhao (2012 and Zhao et al (2013) apply a modified Lee-Carter model based on census and sample survey data for China. Huang and Browne (2017) and Huang (2017) modify the continuous mortality investigation method of the UK's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and apply it to China's mortality using data from 1997-2011. Apart from stochastic modelling, Bayesian methods have also been introduced into mortality modelling in China.…”