Mortality from multiple sclerosis in Austria 1970–2001: dynamics, trends, and prospects

Abstract

A divergence in earlier multiple sclerosis (MS) mortality rates observed within Europe, prompted us to determine the MS mortality rate in Austria and several European countries. Our aim was to examine the temporal and geographical variations within Austria and to determine future MS mortality rates based on a projection model. MS mortality data set, differentiated by age groups, sex, and region at death for the period 1970-2001 were obtained. Prognostic MS mortality trends for the period 2002-2020 were estimated using the simultaneous multiple cause-delay (SIMCAD) method. Our findings indicate a decline (47%) in the MS mortality rate from 1.41 (1970-79) to 0.96 (1980-89) and 0.70 (1990-2001) per 100 000 in Austria during the 32-year period observed. Conversely, the scenarios of our projection for the period 2002-2020, reveal an increasing MS mortality rate. The median age at death because of MS increased with 0.7 years for men and 2.9 years for women during the observed period (1970-2001). Austria, like many other European countries, has experienced a decreasing MS mortality rate over the last three decades. An increased MS mortality rate is however expected over the next decades in Austria. This increase will be most prominent in the elderly population cohorts because of demographic shifts.

Cause of death in MS: long-term follow-up of a randomised cohort, 21 years after the start of the pivotal IFNβ-1b study

“…[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] To estimate this increased mortality risk, one metric commonly used in survival studies is the so-called standardised mortality ratio (SMR). This measure assesses the ratio of the mortality in patients with a condition (over the entire period of observation) divided by the mortality in an age-matched and sexmatched cohort (over the same interval) without the condition.…”

Mortality in multiple sclerosis: meta-analysis of standardised mortality ratios

“…Although female patients with MS may have a better clinical prognosis in terms of reaching long-term disability,31 they have higher SMR than males. This contributes to the clarification of the conflicting reports about the relationship between sex and mortality in people with MS 4 22–24 28 32 33. The variability of reported survival rates of women with MS can be attributed to differences in methodology (eg, calculating CMR only) or changes in sex ratio in MS over time reported by some epidemiological studies in MS 34.…”

Burden of Disease of Multiple Sclerosis in Korea

“…As such, the study team chose the data from Ferrara, Italy, which is located at a relatively approximate degree of latitude of European countries through literature survey that gave maximum consideration to regional characteristics [23]. …”

“…In this study, incidence of MS patients was missing for patients younger than 10 and older than 70, and thus gender and age were set as independent variables based on numerical values estimated from 10 to 69 years, and then a simple regression analysis was performed to calculate estimated incidence by age and gender (Figure 1). As for case fatality rate, because the data of death report of MS by National Statistics Office in Korea were assessed to be inappropriate due to underreporting, the mortality of Austria [23], which offers age- and gender-specific data, was used to be substituted with the following equation along with the calculated estimates of the MS prevalence [24]:…”