Mortality Prediction of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients Using the 2020 Diagnosis Procedure Combination Administrative Database of Japan

Nojiri, Shuko; Irie, Yoshiki; Kanamori, Rie; Naito, Toshio; Nishizaki, Yuji

doi:10.2169/internalmedicine.0086-22

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The logistic regression model penalized the absolute size of the regression coefficients according to the tuning parameter λ. As the penalty increases, only the strongest predictors remain in the model, and the estimates of the weaker factors are reduced to zero 58 . The conditional logistic LASSO model improves power by extending the usual logistic model to matched binary data for large high-dimensional data from individually matched case–control studies and subtracting the similarity between the pairs 59 , 60 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between number of medications and hip fractures in Japanese elderly using conditional logistic LASSO regression

Uematsu,

Kawakami,

Nojiri

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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To examine the association between hip fracture and associated factors, including polypharmacy, and develop an optimal predictive model, we conducted a population-based matched case–control study using the health insurance claims data on hip fracture among Japanese patients. We included 34,717 hospitalized Japanese patients aged ≥ 65 years with hip fracture and 34,717 age- and sex- matched controls who were matched 1:1. This study included 69,434 participants. Overall, 16 variable comorbidities and 60 variable concomitant medications were used as explanatory variables. The participants were added to early elderly and late elderly categories for further analysis. The odds ratio of hip fracture increased with the number of medications only in the early elderly. AUC was highest for early elderly (AUC, 0.74, 95% CI 0.72–0.76). Use of anti-Parkinson’s drugs had the largest coefficient and was the most influential variable in many categories. This study confirmed the association between risk factors, including polypharmacy and hip fracture. The risk of hip fracture increased with an increase in medication number taken by the early elderly and showed good predictive accuracy, whereas there was no such association in the late elderly. Therefore, the early elderly in Japan should be an active target population for hip fracture prevention.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between number of medications and hip fractures in Japanese elderly using conditional logistic LASSO regression

Uematsu,

Kawakami,

Nojiri

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Mitigation strategies, including the mandating of mask-wearing, social distancing, restrictions on movement and gatherings, through to pharmaceutical and vaccination strategies, have been implemented to control the spread of virus with varying degrees of effectiveness ( 5 , 6 ). Although models cannot exactly predict key factors such as the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), these tools have been applied both globally and in Asia to guide potential care needs in terms of stratifying risk, directing limited resources, and planning for future outbreaks ( 26 , 27 ). Models of increasing complexity have also been developed to account for the dynamics of transmission among different age groups in the context of different vaccination statuses and waning vaccine effectiveness over time or against emerging variants ( 28 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia

Thakkar,

Spinardi,

Yang

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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IntroductionEpidemiological modeling is widely used to offer insights into the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Asia. We reviewed published computational (mathematical/simulation) models conducted in Asia that assessed impacts of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions against COVID-19 and their implications for vaccination strategy.MethodsA search of the PubMed database for peer-reviewed, published, and accessible articles in English was performed up to November 2022 to capture studies in Asian populations based on computational modeling of outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Extracted data included model type (mechanistic compartmental/agent-based, statistical, both), intervention type (pharmacological, non-pharmacological), and procedures for parameterizing age. Findings are summarized with descriptive statistics and discussed in terms of the evolving COVID-19 situation.ResultsThe literature search identified 378 results, of which 59 met criteria for data extraction. China, Japan, and South Korea accounted for approximately half of studies, with fewer from South and South-East Asia. Mechanistic models were most common, either compartmental (61.0%), agent-based (1.7%), or combination (18.6%) models. Statistical modeling was applied less frequently (11.9%). Pharmacological interventions were examined in 59.3% of studies, and most considered vaccination, except one study of an antiviral treatment. Non-pharmacological interventions were also considered in 84.7% of studies. Infection, hospitalization, and mortality were outcomes in 91.5%, 30.5%, and 30.5% of studies, respectively. Approximately a third of studies accounted for age, including 10 that also examined mortality. Four of these studies emphasized benefits in terms of mortality from prioritizing older adults for vaccination under conditions of a limited supply; however, one study noted potential benefits to infection rates from early vaccination of younger adults. Few studies (5.1%) considered the impact of vaccination among children.ConclusionEarly in the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmacological interventions helped to mitigate the health burden of COVID-19; however, modeling indicates that high population coverage of effective vaccines will complement and reduce reliance on such interventions. Thus, increasing and maintaining immunity levels in populations through regular booster shots, particularly among at-risk and vulnerable groups, including older adults, might help to protect public health. Future modeling efforts should consider new vaccines and alternative therapies alongside an evolving virus in populations with varied vaccination histories.

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COVID-19: An evaluation of predictive scoring systems in South Africa

Prim,

Kalla,

Zamparini

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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Mortality Prediction of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients Using the 2020 Diagnosis Procedure Combination Administrative Database of Japan

Cited by 7 publications

References 30 publications

Association between number of medications and hip fractures in Japanese elderly using conditional logistic LASSO regression

Association between number of medications and hip fractures in Japanese elderly using conditional logistic LASSO regression

Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia

COVID-19: An evaluation of predictive scoring systems in South Africa

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