Mortality projections for non-converging groups of populations

Hahn, Lukas Josef; Christiansen, Marcus C.

doi:10.1007/s13385-019-00213-1

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The difficulty in using safety margins and other scenarios in the pricing of annuities and other mortality related insurance products has proven to be difficult, to the point that liquid markets for such products are few. Notable examples of stochastic modelling are the formulations by Hahn andChristiansen (2016) andvan Berkum et al (2017), who both develop full probability models for age-specific mortality of one or more populations, and compute the posterior distributions of the relevant risk measures using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.…”

Section: From Scenarios To Stochastic Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction

Bengtsson

Keilman

Alho

et al. 2019

Demographic Research Monographs

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Globally, the twenty-first century will witness rapid population ageing. Already in 2050, one out of five persons in the world, and one out of three in Europe, is expected to be 60 or over (UN 2015). Moreover, we have entered into a new stage of population ageing in terms of its causes, which have altered its consequences. In the first stage, lasting until the middle of the twentieth century in developed countries, population ageing was entirely due to the decline in fertility, with Sweden being commonly used as an example (Coale 1957; Bengtsson and Scott 2010; Lee and Zhou 2017). During this stage, the increase in life expectancy was primarily driven by declines in infant and child mortality. It worked in the opposite direction to

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Section: From Scenarios To Stochastic Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%