Context
To better target services to those who may benefit, many guidelines recommend incorporating life expectancy into clinical decisions.
Objectives
We conducted a systematic review to help physicians assess the quality and limitations of prognostic indices for mortality in older adults.
Data Sources
We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Google Scholar through November 2011.
Study Selection
We included indices if they were validated and predicted absolute risk of mortality in patients whose average age was ≥ 60. We excluded indices that estimated ICU, disease-specific, or in-hospital mortality.
Data Extraction
For each prognostic index, we extracted data on clinical setting, potential for bias, generalizability, and accuracy.
Results
We reviewed 21,593 titles to identify 16 indices that predict risk of mortality from 6-months to 5 years for older adults in a variety of clinical settings: the community (six indices), the nursing home (two indices), and the hospital (eight indices). At least 1 measure of transportability was tested for all but 3 indices. By our measures, no study was free from potential bias. While 13 indices had c-statistics ≥ 0.70, none of the indices had c-statistics ≥ 0.90. Only two indices were independently validated by investigators who were not involved in the index’s development.
Conclusion
We identified several indices for predicting overall mortality in different patient groups; future studies need to independently test their accuracy in heterogeneous populations and their ability to improve clinical outcomes before their widespread use can be recommended.