Mortality tempo-adjustment: Theoretical considerations and an empirical application

Abstract

Summary. The number of scholars following the tempo approach in fertility continues to grow, whereas tempo-adjustment in mortality generally still is rejected. This rejection is irrational in principle, as the basic idea behind the tempo approach is independent of the kind of demographic event. Providing the first empirical application to a substantial problem, this chapter shows that mortality tempo-adjustment can paint a different picture of current mortality conditions compared to conventional life expectancy. An application of the Bongaarts and Feeney method to the analysis of mortality differences between western and eastern Germany shows that the eastern German disadvantages still are considerably higher and that the mortality gap between the two entities began to narrow some years later than trends in conventional life expectancy suggest. Thus, the picture drawn by tempo-adjusted life expectancy fits the expected trends of changing mortality and also the self-reported health conditions of eastern and western Germans better than that painted by conventional life expectancy.

Convergence and divergence of life expectancy in Europe: a centennial view

“…It should, however, not be interpreted as an estimate of the number of years that babies born in a particular year can expect to live. Other limitations of this measure are that tempo effects can distort the measurement of life expectancy in times of rapidly declining or increasing mortality rates [30,31], and that at lower rates of mortality larger and larger declines are necessary for one unit increase in life expectancy [29]. Despite the fact that the latter phenomenon drives life expectancy to convergence, we observed a substantial widening over recent decades, caused by a substantial widening of the underlying mortality rates (Fig.…”

Mortality Tempo: A Guide for the Skeptic

“…An assessment of length of life based on these rates will evidently be very wide of the mark (see empirical estimates of tempo-adjusted life expectancy in Luy/Wegner 2009). Hence, tempo effects might have signifi cant impact on the analysis of mortality trends and differentials as demonstrated by Luy (2006Luy ( , 2008. For the case of mortality differences between eastern and western Germany, he has shown that the picture drawn by tempo-adjusted life expectancy differs from that painted by conventional life expectancy.…”

Tempo effects may distort the interpretation of trends in life expectancy

“…As suggested by the example of East Germany, health care as an important determinant of life expectancy is one of the main candidates being able to immediately lengthen the life of people that are about to die by a few months or years. (11,21,40) A recent example of such a health-care related influence is the case of the Netherlands, where an expansion of health care for the elderly and more frequent use of life-prolonging interventions, facilitated by relaxation of budgetary constraints of hospital expenditures, coincided with a sharp increase in PLE. (41)…”

“…This problem has been discussed extensively in the demographic literature under the name of 'mortality tempo effects'. (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20) These effects are defined as distortions in death rates due to short-term shifts in deaths to either higher or lower ages during rapidly changing mortality conditions. (21) The aim of this paper is to translate the main arguments of this discussion and their implications to a more general audience of population health researchers.…”