MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden

Bårdsen, Gunnar; Reijer, Ard den; Jonasson, Patrik; Nymoen, Ragnar

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.007

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…The equations reflect housing prices, household debt, and residential investment. A more comprehensive representation of the housing market is found in MOSES, which is a small aggregate econometric model for studying the Swedish economy (Bårdsen, den Reijer, Jonasson, and Nymoen, 2012).…”

Section: Summary Of Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden

Turk

2015

IMF Working Papers

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Sweden is experiencing double-digit housing price gains alongside rising household debt. A common interpretation is that mortgage lending boosted by expansionary monetary policy is driving up house prices. But theory suggests the value of housing collateral is also important for household's capacity to borrow. This paper examines the interactions between housing prices and household debt using a three-equation model, finding that household borrowing impacts housing prices in the short-run, but the price of housing is the main driver of the secular trend in household debt over the long-run. Both housing prices and household debt are estimated to be moderately above their long-run equilibrium levels, but the adjustment toward equilibrium is not found to be rapid. Whereas low interest rates have contributed to the recent surge in housing prices, growth in incomes and financial assets play a larger role. Policy experiments suggest that a gradual phasing out of mortgage interest deductibility is likely to have a manageable effect on housing prices and household debt.

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Section: Summary Of Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden

Turk

2015

IMF Working Papers

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“…Also more empirically oriented, estimated models as discussed in Bårdsen and Nymoen (2009) are valuable, both by being a benchmark for evaluation of other theories and empirical applications, and for providing independent information about how the economy works. Bårdsen, Reijer, Jonasson and Nymoen (2012) show that such models may be useful for forecasting and policy analysis. Finally, economists should also to a greater extent use other types of information, like case studies and lessons from historical episodes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models

Holden

2012

SSRN Journal

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“…Extension to the open economy does not interfere with the model typology while it is important for the relevance of the framework to operational models. The modelling framework presented has developed over a number of years, and it has been applied to different data sets, see e.g., Nymoen (1998,2014), Nymoen (2003,2009ab), Akram and Nymoen (2009), Bårdsen et al (2012).…”

Section: Wp-ecm and Pcm Models Of The Supply Sidementioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Wage Formation in Empirical Macroeconometric Models

Nymoen¹

2021

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance

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The specification of model equations for nominal wage setting has important implications for the properties of macroeconometric models and requires system thinking and multiple equation modeling. The main models classes are the Phillips curve model (PCM), the wage–price equilibrium correction model (WP-ECM), and the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPCM). The PCM was included in the macroeconometric models of the 1960s. The WP‑ECM arrived in the late 1980s. The NKPCM is central in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGEs). The three model classes can be interpreted as different specifications of the system of stochastic difference equations that define the supply side of a medium-term macroeconometric model. This calls for an appraisal of the different wage models, in particular in relation to the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU, or natural rate of unemployment), and of the methods and research strategies used. The construction of macroeconomic model used to be based on the combination of theoretical and practical skills in economic modeling. Wage formation was viewed as being forged between the forces of markets and national institutions. In the age of DSGE models, macroeconomics has become more of a theoretical discipline. Nevertheless, producers of DSGE models make use of hybrid forms if an initial theoretical specification fails to meet a benchmark for acceptable data fit. A common ground therefore exists between the NKPC, WP‑ECM, and PCM, and it is feasible to compare the model types empirically.

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MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden

Cited by 7 publications

References 23 publications

Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden

Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden

Implications of Insights from Behavioral Economics for Macroeconomic Models

The Role of Wage Formation in Empirical Macroeconometric Models

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