Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval

Donovan, Kathleen; Kellstedt, Paul M.; Key, Ellen M.; Lebo, Matthew J.

doi:10.1007/s11109-019-09539-8

Cited by 92 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…Moreover, motivated reasoning can undermine accountability and the doling out of punishment and reward for a political job done poorly or well, when such responses may be appropriate. Some have argued American politics is in this state now, with compromised accountability (e.g., Achen & Bartels, 2016;Donovan et al, 2019). Moreover, motivated reasoning can further polarize the public when people encounter information that challenges their existing views and they are motivated to argue against the new information.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intellectual humility in the sociopolitical domain

Krumrei-Mancuso

Newman

2020

Self and Identity

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A growing body of research has demonstrated the relevance of intellectual humility to a variety of interpersonal and social attitudes and behaviors. There is a need for further replication and expansion of findings about the role of intellectual humility in the sociopolitical domain. We examined sociopolitical intellectual humility (SIH), i.e., a non-threatening awareness of the fallibility of one's views about sociopolitical topics in relation to attitudes toward specific political groups and issues in a U.S. sample of adults (N = 587). We found SIH was distinct from political apathy and indifference and unrelated to belief in under-supported political claims. SIH was associated with less affective polarization with regard to political and religious groups. In addition, SIH was related to more responsiveness to information on the topic of immigration among individuals primed to think from a defense rather than accuracy motivated perspective. Finally, for individuals primed to think about the fallibility of their knowledge specific to immigration, having higher trait levels of SIH was associated with more responsiveness to information on the topic of immigration.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intellectual humility in the sociopolitical domain

Krumrei-Mancuso

Newman

2020

Self and Identity

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“…One such challenge stems from individual's own selective information perception, or the notion that political dispositions, like party attachment or group memberships, can bias the kinds of information individuals seek and how they process it (e.g., Green et al, 2004). In the case of the United States, for instance, evaluations of the president's job performance more closely track the economy among independent voters than among partisans (Donovan et al, 2019; also see Kayser & Wlezien, 2011).…”

Section: An Informational Theory Of Economic Perceptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Does the Public Get It Right? The Information Environment and the Accuracy of Economic Sentiment

Carlin

Hellwig

Love

et al. 2021

Comparative Political Studies

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Public evaluations of the economy are key for understanding how citizens develop policy opinions and monitor government performance. But what drives economic evaluations? In this article, we argue the context in which information about the economy is distributed shapes economic perceptions. In high-quality information environments—where policies are transparent, the media is free, and political opposition is robust—mass perceptions closely track economic conditions. In contrast, compromised information environments provide openings for political manipulation, leading perceptions to deviate from business cycle fluctuations. We test our argument with unique data from eight Latin American countries. Results show restrictions on access to information distort the public’s view of economic performance. The ability of voters to sanction governments is stronger when democratic institutions and the media protect citizens’ access to independent, unbiased information. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate evaluations of the economy for government accountability and democratic responsiveness.

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“…These together indicate that partisan polarization affects voters’ use of economic information to evaluate incumbent office holders (Donovan et al., 2019). When a country is more polarized, voters should be more likely to disregard economic performance and vote for their parties’ nominee.…”

Section: The Consequences Of Dynamic Partisanship For Economic Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections

Ellis

Ura²

2020

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective There is substantial evidence that American voters blame or credit the president for the state of the economy when making electoral decisions. However, a variety of findings on economic voting, cognitive biases in information processing, and party polarization indicate that both objective and subjective economic information should become less important to voters as partisan polarization increases. We evaluate whether partisan polarization attenuates the link between economic performance and citizens’ votes. Methods We estimate statistical models of the incumbent party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections from 1952 to 2016 including as predictive terms national partisan polarization (DW‐NOMINATE) and the interaction between polarization and economic growth (annualized second quarter GDP change in election years). Results We find support for our expectation that greater partisan polarization mitigates the association between economic performance and American election returns. Conclusion Economic performance exerts less influence on vote choices when parties are highly polarized than when they are not. Also, currently high levels of partisan polarization in the United States indicate elections will remain competitive, even if economic conditions otherwise favor or undermine an incumbent candidate's chances of winning.

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Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval

Cited by 92 publications

References 102 publications

Intellectual humility in the sociopolitical domain

Intellectual humility in the sociopolitical domain

When Does the Public Get It Right? The Information Environment and the Accuracy of Economic Sentiment

Polarization and the Decline of Economic Voting in American National Elections

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