Mountain Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Shaw, Rajib

doi:10.1007/978-4-431-55242-0

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Screen and Simmonds, 2014). In northern India, there is an increasing trend in heavy rainfall events, particularly over the Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir (Sinha Ray and Srivastava, 2000;Nibanupudi et al, 2015). Long Rossby waves can lead to the generation of alternating convergence and divergence in the upper troposphere that in turn can affect surface weather parameters like precipitation through the generation of instabilities in the atmospheric air associated with convergence and divergence (Niranjan Kumar et al, 2016).…”

Section: Physical Mechanisms Of Climate and Weather Of Jammu And Kashmirmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The local weather and climate of the Himalayas are sensitive and interlinked with global-scale changes in climate, as the hydrology of this region is mainly governed by snow and glaciers. There are clear and strong indicators of climate change reported for the Himalayas, particularly the Jammu and Kashmir region situated in the western Himalayas. In this study, using observational data, detailed characteristics of long- and short-term as well as localized variations in temperature and precipitation are analyzed for these six meteorological stations, namely, Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokarnag, Qazigund, Kupwara and Srinagar during 1980–2016. All of these stations are located in Jammu and Kashmir, India. In addition to analysis of stations observations, we also utilized the dynamical downscaled simulations of WRF model and ERA-Interim (ERA-I) data for the study period. The annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed by carrying out Mann–Kendall, linear regression, cumulative deviation and Student's t statistical tests. The results show an increase of 0.8 ∘C in average annual temperature over 37 years (from 1980 to 2016) with higher increase in maximum temperature (0.97 ∘C) compared to minimum temperature (0.76 ∘C). Analyses of annual mean temperature at all the stations reveal that the high-altitude stations of Pahalgam (1.13 ∘C) and Gulmarg (1.04 ∘C) exhibit a steep increase and statistically significant trends. The overall precipitation and temperature patterns in the valley show significant decreases and increases in the annual rainfall and temperature respectively. Seasonal analyses show significant increasing trends in the winter and spring temperatures at all stations, with prominent decreases in spring precipitation. In the present study, the observed long-term trends in temperature (∘Cyear-1) and precipitation (mm year−1) along with their respective standard errors during 1980–2016 are as follows: (i) 0.05 (0.01) and −16.7 (6.3) for Gulmarg, (ii) 0.04 (0.01) and −6.6 (2.9) for Srinagar, (iii) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.69 (4.79) for Kokarnag, (iv) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.13 (3.95) for Pahalgam, (v) 0.034 (0.01) and −5.5 (3.6) for Kupwara, and (vi) 0.01 (0.01) and −7.96 (4.5) for Qazigund. The present study also reveals that variation in temperature and precipitation during winter (December–March) has a close association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Further, the observed temperature data (monthly averaged data for 1980–2016) at all the stations show a good correlation of 0.86 with the results of WRF and therefore the model downscaled simulations are considered a valid scientific tool for the studies of climate change in this region. Though the correlation between WRF model and observed precipitation is significantly strong, the WRF model significantly underestimates the rainfall amount, which necessitates the need for the sensitivity study of the model using the various microphysical parameterization schemes. The potential vorticities in the upper troposphere are obtained from ERA-I over the Jammu and Kashmir region and indicate that the extreme weather event of September 2014 occurred due to breaking of intense atmospheric Rossby wave activity over Kashmir. As the wave could transport a large amount of water vapor from both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and dump them over the Kashmir region through wave breaking, it probably resulted in the historical devastating flooding of the whole Kashmir valley in the first week of September 2014. This was accompanied by extreme rainfall events measuring more than 620 mm in some parts of the Pir Panjal range in the south Kashmir.

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Section: Physical Mechanisms Of Climate and Weather Of Jammu And Kashmirmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

et al. 2019

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“…Theoretical and observational studies along with idealized numerical experiments have indicated that topographically and diabatically generated vortex anomalies at upper and lower levels can serve as triggers for Rossby waves propagating into the extratropics (Sardeshmukh and Hoskins, 1988;Hoskins and Karoly, 1981;Schwierz et al, 2004a;Niranjan Kumar and Ouarda, 2014). Also, a significant role in the amplification of the waves is played by the diabatic processes as demonstrated in a previous case studies (Massacand et al, 2001). The most dominant periods of the stationary planetary-scale waves (Rossby normal modes) corresponding to intrinsic periods are 2, 5, 8.3, and 12.5 days (Forbes, 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 60%

“…These devastating floods in Uttarakhand affected the tourism industry, which is the principal contributor to the state gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, the extreme rainfall events were also recorded in the states of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir (Nibanupudi et al, 2015).…”

Section: K Niranjan Kumar Et Al: Extratropical Rossby Waves and Sumentioning

confidence: 99%

Modulation of surface meteorological parameters by extratropical planetary-scale Rossby waves

Kumar¹,

Phanikumar

Ouarda

et al. 2016

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. This study examines the link between uppertropospheric planetary-scale Rossby waves and surface meteorological parameters based on the observations made in association with the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) campaign at an extratropical site at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences, Nainital (29.45 • N, 79.5 • E) during November-December 2011. The spectral analysis of the tropospheric wind field from radiosonde measurements indicates a predominance power of around 8 days in the upper troposphere during the observational period. An analysis of the 200 hPa meridional wind (v200 hPa) anomalies from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis shows distinct Rossby-wave-like structures over a highaltitude site in the central Himalayan region. Furthermore, the spectral analysis of global v200 hPa anomalies indicates the Rossby waves are characterized by zonal wave number 6. The amplification of the Rossby wave packets over the site leads to persistent subtropical jet stream (STJ) patterns, which further affects the surface weather conditions. The propagating Rossby waves in the upper troposphere along with the undulations in the STJ create convergence and divergence regions in the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the surface meteorological parameters such as the relative humidity, wind speeds, and temperature are synchronized with the phase of the propagating Rossby waves. Moreover, the present study finds important implications for medium-range forecasting through the upper-level Rossby waves over the study region.

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“…With the effect of climate change being felt increasingly in the form of increasing temperatures in the Indian subcontinentabout 0.3-0.6 °C in the last 100 years (IPCC 2007) and predicted to increase further in the coming decades -the frequency of disasters is expected to rise. The increase in climate-related disaster events and human casualties has been reported to be increasing at the rate of 6 % and 9 %, respectively (Shaw and Nabanapudi 2015;DMMC 2015;Sharma and Dobriyal 2014). Several studies (Bajracharya 2009;SAARC 2008) and the 2013 Uttarakhand disaster (Chopra 2014) also show a rapid melting of the Himalayan glaciers in recent times and present indications of impending disasters in times to come.…”

Section: Case Of Uttarakhandmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The Himalayan regions experience numerous disasters annually, and earthquakes, landslides, and flooding contribute to almost half of the incidents (Shaw and Nabanapudi 2015). The state of Uttarakhand, India, situated in the Himalayan mountain range is no different and plagued by natural disasters.…”

Section: Case Of Uttarakhandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Factors Influencing Hydro-climatic Risk and Human Vulnerability: Application of Systems Thinking in the Himalayan Region

Misra¹,

Misra

Scott

2016

Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya

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The Uttarakhand flash floods of 2013 have been dubbed as the "Himalayan Tsunami". The region has been subjected to severe changes in its high-mountain glacial environment. The risk of disasters striking this region has therefore considerably increased in recent times because of the increased human activities and unplanned urbanization, which along with changing climate affects the fragile social-ecological system (SES) in the region. This chapter deals with the study of the SES wellbeing in the Himalayas in light of the 2013 Uttarakhand disaster with focus on the drivers and the interrelationships among them. Systems thinking (ST) is the foundation of the proposed framework for this case study. Application of ST principles provides insights to the way environment has been responding to the stimuli. ST approaches provided the scope to confirm that drivers and dimensions like population, anthropogenic induced disturbances (deforestation and hydel projects) and education (disaster preparedness) need to be given priorities for addressing the challenges. The case of Uttarakhand in India indicates that the systemic behaviour for measuring SES wellbeing can be measured through standard dimensions. However, systematic behaviour analysed through events and pattern analyses, causal-loop diagrams and circular referencing loops provided deeper insights that have differently influenced this systemic behaviour.

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Mountain Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events

Modulation of surface meteorological parameters by extratropical planetary-scale Rossby waves

Understanding Factors Influencing Hydro-climatic Risk and Human Vulnerability: Application of Systems Thinking in the Himalayan Region

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