Mountain pine beetle, global markets, and the British Columbia forest economy

Abstract

A number of near-term timber supply shocks are projected to impact global forest product markets, particularly mountain pine beetle induced timber reductions, a Russian log export tax, and timber supply increases from plantation forests in the Southern Hemisphere and Sweden. We examined their effect on a number of global jurisdictions using a dynamic global forest products trade model that separates British Columbia (BC) into coastal and interior forest sectors. The results suggest that global increases in plantation timber would have negligible effects on BC log and lumber markets, that the Russian tax would have minor effects on this market, and that the beetle-induced timber supply drop would moderately increase BC prices (primarily log prices). In the United States South, lumber and log prices could rise as a result of the mountain pine beetle, while other shocks will have a negligible impact on prices. Yet, lumber production will fall because log prices will increase substantially more than lumber prices. Japan could be impacted much more than other regions by the Russian tax on log exports. In the absence of export taxes, a beetle-induced timber shortage would cause lumber production in Japan to rise (as Japan can access nearby Russian logs), while the export tax would reduce lumber production because log prices rise disproportionately more than in other regions.

Climate Change and Ecosystem Disruption: The Health Impacts of the North American Rocky Mountain Pine Beetle Infestation

“…This creates a small economic windfall that quickly dissipates once the dead timber has been harvested and no new growth is available. 51,52 This can lead to a rise in unemployment and decline in socioeconomic status, with outmigration further depressing tax revenues. 52 …”

“…A simplified calculation of the economic impact of the pine beetle in British Columbia estimated a Can|$2.5 billion decrease in manufacturing activity, a loss of 27|000 direct jobs, and a loss of $250 million in government stumpage (the price charged by government to companies or operators for the right to harvest timber on public land) and royalty revenues. 70,71 These estimates, which were based on loss of available timber fiber, were made prior to the current global recession. Similar economic data for timber-related losses in the United States and for losses from tourist industries are not available.…”

Fire Injury Reduces Inducible Defenses of Lodgepole Pine against Mountain Pine Beetle

“…Each has important effects on both natural ecosystem processes and human socioeconomic values (Kline et al, 2004;Abbott et al, 2009), and likewise is undergoing altered regimes due to anthropogenic inputs (Westerling et al, 2006;Kurz et al, 2008). These disturbance agents often have interacting effects, which can be complex (Geiszler et al, 1980;Martin and Mitchell, 1980).…”

Elasticity of demand for Canadian logs and lumber in China and Japan

“…Past forest products demand research and trade modelling has tended to treat the product groupings lumber and logs as homogenous products (Buongiorno et al 2003;Abbott et al 2009). However, domestic and imported products may not be perfect substitutes.…”