Movement-Based Biosecurity Zones for Control of Highly Infectious Animal Diseases: Application of Community Detection Analysis to a Livestock Vehicle Movement Network

Lee, Gyoungju; Pak, Son‐Il; Lee, Kwang‐Nyeong; Hong, Sang-Bum

doi:10.3390/su11061642

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…At present, the epidemic zones in infectious disease models are mostly described in the form of a network. The importance of containment zones within the city in containing outbreaks of either animal infectious diseases or human infectious diseases has been verified by using a dynamical network-based infectious disease model [ 16 , 17 ]. Liu et al [ 18 ] proposed the method of landscape network entropy, which is a model-free method using only the topological structure of the district network and daily new case data, and they successfully detected the early warning signals of COVID-19 outbreaks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning

Yuan

Tang

2023

BMC Infect Dis

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Background Epidemic zoning is an important option in a series of measures for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. We aim to accurately assess the disease transmission process by considering the epidemic zoning, and we take two epidemics with distinct outbreak sizes as an example, i.e., the Xi’an epidemic in late 2021 and the Shanghai epidemic in early 2022. Methods For the two epidemics, the total cases were clearly distinguished by their reporting zone and the Bernoulli counting process was used to describe whether one infected case in society would be reported in control zones or not. Assuming the imperfect or perfect isolation policy in control zones, the transmission processes are respectively simulated by the adjusted renewal equation with case importation, which can be derived on the basis of the Bellman-Harris branching theory. The likelihood function containing unknown parameters is then constructed by assuming the daily number of new cases reported in control zones follows a Poisson distribution. All the unknown parameters were obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation. Results For both epidemics, the internal infections characterized by subcritical transmission within the control zones were verified, and the median control reproduction numbers were estimated as 0.403 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.352, 0.459) in Xi’an epidemic and 0.727 (95% CI: 0.724, 0.730) in Shanghai epidemic, respectively. In addition, although the detection rate of social cases quickly increased to 100% during the decline period of daily new cases until the end of the epidemic, the detection rate in Xi’an was significantly higher than that in Shanghai in the previous period. Conclusions The comparative analysis of the two epidemics with different consequences highlights the role of the higher detection rate of social cases since the beginning of the epidemic and the reduced transmission risk in control zones throughout the outbreak. Strengthening the detection of social infection and strictly implementing the isolation policy are of great significance to avoid a larger-scale epidemic.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning

Yuan

Tang

2023

BMC Infect Dis

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“…Recent literature developed a movement-based zoning approach to delineating containment zones to confront foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) (G.-J. Lee, Pak, Lee, & Hong, 2019 ). A network structure was implemented to formulate livestock movement, where the nodes were livestock facilities, and the links were the amount of livestock transportation among different facilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regionalization for infection control: An algorithm for delineating containment zones considering the regularity of human mobility

Kuo

Wen

2021

Applied Geography

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Restricting human movement to decrease contact probability and frequency helps mitigate large-scale epidemics. Movement-based zoning can be implemented to delineate the boundaries for movement restrictions. Previous studies used network community detection methods, which capture cohesive within-region movements, to delineate containment zones. However, most people usually travel and spend most of their time in several fixed locations, which implies that an infected person could transmit the pathogens to only a specific group of people with whom s/he usually has a contact in frequently-visited locations. Existing network community detection methods cannot reflect the regularity of the flow of people; thus, this study aims to use land-use patterns to reflect trip purposes to measure the regularity of human mobility. We propose a novel network community detection method, the Human Mobility Regularity-based Zoning (HuMoRZ) algorithm, to delineate containment zones incorporating mobility regularity. The Taipei metropolitan area in Taiwan is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed algorithm. The spatial diffusion of an emerging respiratory disease, novel influenza A/H1N1, is simulated for comparing three different quarantine zoning systems: (1) a minimum zoning unit, (2) optimal zoning without considering mobility regularity, and (3) optimal zoning considering mobility regularity. Two epidemiological performance indicators are used to compare simulation results: namely, the accumulated infected number (AN) on the 30th day, reflecting the severity of an epidemic, and the critical time (CT), the moment at which half of the population becomes infected, measuring the diffusion speed of an epidemic. To measure the variety of different facility types within a containment zone, we further use Shannon's entropy scores, representing a self-contained zone, and the boxplot of all zones' entropy scores, reflecting geospatial homogeneity of life functions across zones. Our results suggest that containment zones that incorporate mobility regularity could significantly delay the epidemic peak and critical time and decrease the severity of an epidemic. The zoning patterns proposed in our algorithm could also allow for more life functions in a zone and more evenly distributed life resources across zones than those of zones generated by other methods. These findings could provide insightful implications for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.

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“…Furthermore, many other studies have proposed methods to prevent and control epidemic livestock diseases. [4][5][6] As mentioned in many previous studies, the spread of livestock epidemics is inseparable from road mobility [7][8][9]. Thus, convergence research in health sciences and transportation engineering is required to control infectious diseases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework of an Integrated Livestock Vehicle Trajectory Database Using Digital Tachograph Data

2021

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The outbreak of African swine fever virus has raised global concerns regarding epidemic livestock diseases. Therefore, various studies have attempted to prevent and monitor epidemic livestock diseases. Most of them have emphasized that integrated studies between the public health and transportation engineering are essential to prevent the livestock disease spread. However, it has been difficult to obtain big data related to the mobility of livestock-related vehicles. Thus, it is challenging to conduct research that comprehensively considers cargo vehicles’ movement carrying livestock and the spread of livestock infectious diseases. This study developed the framework for integrating the digital tachograph data (DTG) and trucks’ visit history of livestock facility data. The DTG data include commercial trucks’ coordinate information, but it excludes actual livestock-related vehicle trajectories such as freight types and facility visit history. Therefore, the integrated database we developed can be used as a significant resource for preventing the spread of livestock epidemics by pre-monitoring livestock transport vehicles’ movements. In future studies, epidemiological research on infectious diseases and livestock species will be able to conduct through the derived integrating database. Furthermore, the indicators of the spread of infectious diseases could be suggested based on both microscopic and macroscopic roadway networks to manage livestock epidemics.

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Movement-Based Biosecurity Zones for Control of Highly Infectious Animal Diseases: Application of Community Detection Analysis to a Livestock Vehicle Movement Network

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning

Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning

Regionalization for infection control: An algorithm for delineating containment zones considering the regularity of human mobility

A Framework of an Integrated Livestock Vehicle Trajectory Database Using Digital Tachograph Data

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