Moving On from the Insect Apocalypse Narrative: Engaging with Evidence-Based Insect Conservation

Saunders, Manu E.; Janes, Jasmine K.; O’Hanlon, James C.

doi:10.1093/biosci/biz143

Cited by 116 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…Additionally, longer‐term studies, which should better capture the mean trend, did not present the dramatic declines reported in shorter term studies (Fig. 2, and similar to the effects found in other longer‐term studies like Macgregor et al ., 2019; Saunders et al ., 2019; van Klink et al ., 2020 and also found in vertebrate studies like Daskalova et al ., 2020; Leung et al ., 2020). Overall, we detected considerable variation across realms and among sites, with some individual locations exhibiting both substantial increases and decreases (Supporting Information Table S3 and Fig.…”

Section: Monitored Populations Viewed As a Sample Of Trends Across Simentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for year effects and sampling error in temporal analyses of invertebrate population and biodiversity change: a comment on Seibold et al. 2019

Daskalova

Phillimore

Myers‐Smith

2021

Insect Conserv Diversity

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1. An accumulating number of studies are reporting severe insect declines. These studies aim to quantify temporal changes in invertebrate populations and community composition and attribute them to anthropogenic drivers. 2. Seibold et al. 2019 (Nature, 574, 671-674) analysed arthropod biomass, abundance and species richness from forest and grassland plots in a region of Germany and reported declines of up to 78% between 2008 and 2018. However, their analysis did not account for the confounding effects of temporal pseudoreplication. 3. We show that simply by including a year random effect in the statistical models and thereby accounting for the common conditions experienced by proximal sites in the same years, four of the five reported declines become non-significant out of six tests overall. 4. To place recent estimates of insect trends in a broader context, we analysed invertebrate biomass, abundance and richness from 640 time series from 1167 sites around the world. We found that the average trends across the terrestrial and freshwater realms were not significantly distinguishable from no net change. Shorter time series that are likely most affected by sampling error variancesuch as those in Seibold et al. 2019 (Nature, 574, 671-674)yielded the most extreme decline and increase estimates. 5. We suggest that the media uptake of negative trends from short time series may be serving to exaggerate the 'insect Armageddon' and could undermine public confidence in research. We advocate that future research uses appropriate model structures to build a more robust understanding of biodiversity change.

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Section: Monitored Populations Viewed As a Sample Of Trends Across Simentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for year effects and sampling error in temporal analyses of invertebrate population and biodiversity change: a comment on Seibold et al. 2019

Daskalova

Phillimore

Myers‐Smith

2021

Insect Conserv Diversity

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“…The scientific response to this has been an exemplar of the nature of science as a self-correcting endeavour, with critical re-evaluation of the findings emerging rapidly (e.g. Willig et al, 2019;Cardoso & Leather, 2019;Komonen et al, 2019;Montgomery et al, 2020Mupepele et al, 2019Simmons et al, 2019;Thomas et al, 2019;Wagner, 2019;Saunders et al, 2020a). The global media response has been something entirely different but has put insect conservation firmly on the public and policy agenda (Harvey et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpreting insect declines: seven challenges and a way forward

Didham

Basset

Collins

et al. 2020

Insect Conserv Diversity

334

355

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Many insect species are under threat from the anthropogenic drivers of global change. There have been numerous well‐documented examples of insect population declines and extinctions in the scientific literature, but recent weaker studies making extreme claims of a global crisis have drawn widespread media coverage and brought unprecedented public attention. This spotlight might be a double‐edged sword if the veracity of alarmist insect decline statements do not stand up to close scrutiny. We identify seven key challenges in drawing robust inference about insect population declines: establishment of the historical baseline, representativeness of site selection, robustness of time series trend estimation, mitigation of detection bias effects, and ability to account for potential artefacts of density dependence, phenological shifts and scale‐dependence in extrapolation from sample abundance to population‐level inference. Insect population fluctuations are complex. Greater care is needed when evaluating evidence for population trends and in identifying drivers of those trends. We present guidelines for best‐practise approaches that avoid methodological errors, mitigate potential biases and produce more robust analyses of time series trends. Despite many existing challenges and pitfalls, we present a forward‐looking prospectus for the future of insect population monitoring, highlighting opportunities for more creative exploitation of existing baseline data, technological advances in sampling and novel computational approaches. Entomologists cannot tackle these challenges alone, and it is only through collaboration with citizen scientists, other research scientists in many disciplines, and data analysts that the next generation of researchers will bridge the gap between little bugs and big data.

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“…In recent years, evidence has grown about the decline of terrestrial insects across the world and the possibility of ecosystem collapse (3)(4)(5)(6). However, the data available on this important group are rather sparse and geographically limited such that this conclusion has been questioned (7,8).…”

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confidence: 99%

The decline of butterflies in Europe: Problems, significance, and possible solutions

Warren

Maes

Swaay

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

278

183

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We review changes in the status of butterflies in Europe, focusing on long-running population data available for the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Belgium, based on standardized monitoring transects. In the United Kingdom, 8% of resident species have become extinct, and since 1976 overall numbers declined by around 50%. In the Netherlands, 20% of species have become extinct, and since 1990 overall numbers in the country declined by 50%. Distribution trends showed that butterfly distributions began decreasing long ago, and between 1890 and 1940, distributions declined by 80%. In Flanders (Belgium), 20 butterflies have become extinct (29%), and between 1992 and 2007 overall numbers declined by around 30%. A European Grassland Butterfly Indicator from 16 European countries shows there has been a 39% decline of grassland butterflies since 1990. The 2010 Red List of European butterflies listed 38 of the 482 European species (8%) as threatened and 44 species (10%) as near threatened (note that 47 species were not assessed). A country level analysis indicates that the average Red List rating is highest in central and mid-Western Europe and lowest in the far north of Europe and around the Mediterranean. The causes of the decline of butterflies are thought to be similar in most countries, mainly habitat loss and degradation and chemical pollution. Climate change is allowing many species to spread northward while bringing new threats to susceptible species. We describe examples of possible conservation solutions and a summary of policy changes needed to conserve butterflies and other insects.

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Moving On from the Insect Apocalypse Narrative: Engaging with Evidence-Based Insect Conservation

Cited by 116 publications

References 108 publications

Accounting for year effects and sampling error in temporal analyses of invertebrate population and biodiversity change: a comment on Seibold et al. 2019

Accounting for year effects and sampling error in temporal analyses of invertebrate population and biodiversity change: a comment on Seibold et al. 2019

Interpreting insect declines: seven challenges and a way forward

The decline of butterflies in Europe: Problems, significance, and possible solutions

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