Moving toward rice self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons learned from 10 years of the Coalition for African Rice Development

Arouna, Aminou; Fatognon, Irene Akoko; Saito, Kazuki; Futakuchi, Koichi

doi:10.1016/j.wdp.2021.100291

Cited by 78 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In this context, we report some key results in which both climate and LULC current and future scenarios heavily influence rice and pulla group co-occurrence. Indeed, our current predictions show that the climatic suitability in the current scenario for rice crops is mainly found in two districts, Western and Eastern Africa, being in accordance with Arouna et al (2021) . The former shows high suitability for the pulla group, while the latter is suitable to this pest only in its northern part, posing at-risk rice crops in both cases.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Iannella¹,

Simone²,

D’Alessandro³

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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Aims Rice is a staple food for many countries, being fundamental for a large part of the worlds’ population. In sub-Saharan Africa, its importance is currently high and is likely to become even more relevant, considering that the number of people and the per-capita consumption are both predicted to increase. The flea beetles belonging to the Chaetocnema pulla species group (pulla group), a harmful rice pest, are an important vector of the Rice Yellow Mottle Virus, a disease which leads even to 80–100% yield losses in rice production. We present a continental-scale study aiming at: (1) locating current and future suitable territories for both pulla group and rice; (2) identifying areas where rice cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of pulla group using an Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) approach; (3) estimating current and future connectivity among pulla group populations and areas predicted to host rice cultivations, based on the most recent land-use estimates for future agricultural trends; (4) proposing a new connectivity index called “Pest Aggression Index” (PAI) to measure the agricultural susceptibility to the potential future invasions of pests and disease; (5) quantifying losses in terms of production when rice cultivations co‐occur with the pulla group and identifying the SSA countries which, in the future inferred scenarios, will potentially suffer the greatest losses. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Since the ongoing climate and land-use changes affect species’ distributions, we first assess the impact of these changes through a spatially-jackknifed Maxent-based Ecological Niche Modelling in GIS environment, for both the pulla group and rice, in two climatic/socioeconomic future scenarios (SSP_2.45 and 3.70). We then assess the connectivity potential of the pulla group populations towards rice cultivations, for both current and future predictions, through a circuit theory-based approach (Circuitscape implemented in Julia language). We finally measure the rice production and GPD loss per country through the spatial index named “Pest Aggression Index”, based on the inferred connectivity magnitude. Results The most considerable losses in rice production are observed for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Madagascar in all future scenarios (2030, 2050, 2070). The future economic cost, calculated as USD lost from rice losses/country’s GDP results are high for Central African Republic (−0.6% in SSP_2.45 and −3.0% in SSP_3.70) and Guinea–Bissau (−0.4% in SSP_2.45 and −0.68% in SSP_3.70), with relevant losses also obtained for other countries. Main conclusions Since our results are spatially explicit and focused on each country, we encourage careful land-use planning. Our findings could support best practices to avoid the future settlement of new cultivations in territories where rice would be attacked by pulla group and the virus, bringing economic and biodiversity losses.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Iannella¹,

Simone²,

D’Alessandro³

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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“…Consequently, 71 % increase in paddy rice production during 2007–2012 was attributed to yield increases, and 29 % was attributed to harvested-area expansion ( Saito et al, 2015 ). However, between 2012 and 2018, the increase in yield was only 1.19 % annually, compared to an annual increase of 1.47 % between 2007 and 2012 ( Arouna et al, 2021a ). Despite the various policies implemented to boost local production, especially after the 2007/2008 global food crisis, local production in SSA has not been sufficient to meet the increasing demands of the population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing rice production sustainability performance indicators and their gaps in twelve sub-Saharan African countries

Arouna

Devkota

Yergo

et al. 2021

Field Crops Research

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Highlights Five indicators for rice production and their gaps were assessed in 12 countries. The indicators include yield, profit, labor productivity, N- and P-use efficiencies. Mean yield varied: 2.5–5.6 t ha −1 in irrigated and 0.6–2.3 t ha −1 in rainfed. There were yield gaps of 29–69 % and profit gaps of 10–89 %. Less than 50 % of farmers had desirable ranges in N- or P-use efficiencies.

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“…This contribution resulted from increases in area and yield of 23 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively. However, the study concluded that yield growth rate was not sustainable in almost two-thirds of the CARD countries because 'supply-push' factors, such as the promotion of new rice varieties, fertilisers and irrigation, were seen to have limited long-term effects on rice production (Arouna et al, 2021). Sustainable investments in 'demand-pull' factors involving value chain upgrading, such as improvements in the privately led modern milling sector, were less prominent in the NRDS.…”

Section: Key Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Small-Scale Processors in Supporting Agricultural Commercialisation Among Smallholder Rice Farmers in East Africa: Lessons from Ethiopia and Tanzania

Alemu¹,

Isinika²,

Odame³

et al. 2021

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Until recently, attention to rice value chain upgrading has been limited in many rice-producing countries of Eastern Africa. Yet, it is this mid-stream section (the millers and traders) – the so-called ‘hidden middle’ – which is essential to sustaining the capacity of rice value chains to contributing to food security in the region, as it fulfils a crucial intermediary role between supply and demand. In this paper, we focus on the role of rice processors as key actors in rice sector development in East Africa along with what challenges and opportunities they face, drawing on primary data generated from surveys and key informant interviews in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

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Moving toward rice self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons learned from 10 years of the Coalition for African Rice Development

Cited by 78 publications

References 31 publications

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Climate change favours connectivity between virus-bearing pest and rice cultivations in sub-Saharan Africa, depressing local economies

Assessing rice production sustainability performance indicators and their gaps in twelve sub-Saharan African countries

The Role of Small-Scale Processors in Supporting Agricultural Commercialisation Among Smallholder Rice Farmers in East Africa: Lessons from Ethiopia and Tanzania

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